Classification - Machine Learning This is ‘Classification’ tutorial which is a part of the Machine Learning course offered by Simplilearn. We will learn Classification algorithms, types of classification algorithms, support vector machines(SVM), Naive Bayes, Decision Tree and Random Forest Classifier in this tutorial. Objectives Let us look at some of the objectives covered under this section of Machine Learning tutorial. Define Classification and list its algorithms Describe Logistic Regression and Sigmoid Probability Explain K-Nearest Neighbors and KNN classification Understand Support Vector Machines, Polynomial Kernel, and Kernel Trick Analyze Kernel Support Vector Machines with an example Implement the Naïve Bayes Classifier Demonstrate Decision Tree Classifier Describe Random Forest Classifier Classification: Meaning Classification is a type of supervised learning. It specifies the class to which data elements belong to and is best used when the output has finite and discrete values. It predicts a class for an input variable as well. There are 2 types of Classification: Binomial Multi-Class Classification: Use Cases Some of the key areas where classification cases are being used: To find whether an email received is a spam or ham To identify customer segments To find if a bank loan is granted To identify if a kid will pass or fail in an examination Classification: Example Social media sentiment analysis has two potential outcomes, positive or negative, as displayed by the chart given below. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/classification-example-machine-learning.JPG This chart shows the classification of the Iris flower dataset into its three sub-species indicated by codes 0, 1, and 2. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-flower-dataset-graph.JPG The test set dots represent the assignment of new test data points to one class or the other based on the trained classifier model. Types of Classification Algorithms Let’s have a quick look into the types of Classification Algorithm below. Linear Models Logistic Regression Support Vector Machines Nonlinear models K-nearest Neighbors (KNN) Kernel Support Vector Machines (SVM) Naïve Bayes Decision Tree Classification Random Forest Classification Logistic Regression: Meaning Let us understand the Logistic Regression model below. This refers to a regression model that is used for classification. This method is widely used for binary classification problems. It can also be extended to multi-class classification problems. Here, the dependent variable is categorical: y ϵ {0, 1} A binary dependent variable can have only two values, like 0 or 1, win or lose, pass or fail, healthy or sick, etc In this case, you model the probability distribution of output y as 1 or 0. This is called the sigmoid probability (σ). If σ(θ Tx) > 0.5, set y = 1, else set y = 0 Unlike Linear Regression (and its Normal Equation solution), there is no closed form solution for finding optimal weights of Logistic Regression. Instead, you must solve this with maximum likelihood estimation (a probability model to detect the maximum likelihood of something happening). It can be used to calculate the probability of a given outcome in a binary model, like the probability of being classified as sick or passing an exam. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/logistic-regression-example-graph.JPG Sigmoid Probability The probability in the logistic regression is often represented by the Sigmoid function (also called the logistic function or the S-curve): https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/sigmoid-function-machine-learning.JPG In this equation, t represents data values * the number of hours studied and S(t) represents the probability of passing the exam. Assume sigmoid function: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/sigmoid-probability-machine-learning.JPG g(z) tends toward 1 as z -> infinity , and g(z) tends toward 0 as z -> infinity K-nearest Neighbors (KNN) K-nearest Neighbors algorithm is used to assign a data point to clusters based on similarity measurement. It uses a supervised method for classification. The steps to writing a k-means algorithm are as given below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/knn-distribution-graph-machine-learning.JPG Choose the number of k and a distance metric. (k = 5 is common) Find k-nearest neighbors of the sample that you want to classify Assign the class label by majority vote. KNN Classification A new input point is classified in the category such that it has the most number of neighbors from that category. For example: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/knn-classification-machine-learning.JPG Classify a patient as high risk or low risk. Mark email as spam or ham. Keen on learning about Classification Algorithms in Machine Learning? Click here! Support Vector Machine (SVM) Let us understand Support Vector Machine (SVM) in detail below. SVMs are classification algorithms used to assign data to various classes. They involve detecting hyperplanes which segregate data into classes. SVMs are very versatile and are also capable of performing linear or nonlinear classification, regression, and outlier detection. Once ideal hyperplanes are discovered, new data points can be easily classified. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/support-vector-machines-graph-machine-learning.JPG The optimization objective is to find “maximum margin hyperplane” that is farthest from the closest points in the two classes (these points are called support vectors). In the given figure, the middle line represents the hyperplane. SVM Example Let’s look at this image below and have an idea about SVM in general. Hyperplanes with larger margins have lower generalization error. The positive and negative hyperplanes are represented by: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/positive-negative-hyperplanes-machine-learning.JPG Classification of any new input sample xtest : If w0 + wTxtest > 1, the sample xtest is said to be in the class toward the right of the positive hyperplane. If w0 + wTxtest < -1, the sample xtest is said to be in the class toward the left of the negative hyperplane. When you subtract the two equations, you get: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/equation-subtraction-machine-learning.JPG Length of vector w is (L2 norm length): https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/length-of-vector-machine-learning.JPG You normalize with the length of w to arrive at: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/normalize-equation-machine-learning.JPG SVM: Hard Margin Classification Given below are some points to understand Hard Margin Classification. The left side of equation SVM-1 given above can be interpreted as the distance between the positive (+ve) and negative (-ve) hyperplanes; in other words, it is the margin that can be maximized. Hence the objective of the function is to maximize with the constraint that the samples are classified correctly, which is represented as : https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/hard-margin-classification-machine-learning.JPG This means that you are minimizing ‖w‖. This also means that all positive samples are on one side of the positive hyperplane and all negative samples are on the other side of the negative hyperplane. This can be written concisely as : https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/hard-margin-classification-formula.JPG Minimizing ‖w‖ is the same as minimizing. This figure is better as it is differentiable even at w = 0. The approach listed above is called “hard margin linear SVM classifier.” SVM: Soft Margin Classification Given below are some points to understand Soft Margin Classification. To allow for linear constraints to be relaxed for nonlinearly separable data, a slack variable is introduced. (i) measures how much ith instance is allowed to violate the margin. The slack variable is simply added to the linear constraints. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/soft-margin-calculation-machine-learning.JPG Subject to the above constraints, the new objective to be minimized becomes: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/soft-margin-calculation-formula.JPG You have two conflicting objectives now—minimizing slack variable to reduce margin violations and minimizing to increase the margin. The hyperparameter C allows us to define this trade-off. Large values of C correspond to larger error penalties (so smaller margins), whereas smaller values of C allow for higher misclassification errors and larger margins. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/machine-learning-certification-video-preview.jpg SVM: Regularization The concept of C is the reverse of regularization. Higher C means lower regularization, which increases bias and lowers the variance (causing overfitting). https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/concept-of-c-graph-machine-learning.JPG IRIS Data Set The Iris dataset contains measurements of 150 IRIS flowers from three different species: Setosa Versicolor Viriginica Each row represents one sample. Flower measurements in centimeters are stored as columns. These are called features. IRIS Data Set: SVM Let’s train an SVM model using sci-kit-learn for the Iris dataset: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/svm-model-graph-machine-learning.JPG Nonlinear SVM Classification There are two ways to solve nonlinear SVMs: by adding polynomial features by adding similarity features Polynomial features can be added to datasets; in some cases, this can create a linearly separable dataset. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/nonlinear-classification-svm-machine-learning.JPG In the figure on the left, there is only 1 feature x1. This dataset is not linearly separable. If you add x2 = (x1)2 (figure on the right), the data becomes linearly separable. Polynomial Kernel In sci-kit-learn, one can use a Pipeline class for creating polynomial features. Classification results for the Moons dataset are shown in the figure. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/polynomial-kernel-machine-learning.JPG Polynomial Kernel with Kernel Trick Let us look at the image below and understand Kernel Trick in detail. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/polynomial-kernel-with-kernel-trick.JPG For large dimensional datasets, adding too many polynomial features can slow down the model. You can apply a kernel trick with the effect of polynomial features without actually adding them. The code is shown (SVC class) below trains an SVM classifier using a 3rd-degree polynomial kernel but with a kernel trick. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/polynomial-kernel-equation-machine-learning.JPG The hyperparameter coefθ controls the influence of high-degree polynomials. Kernel SVM Let us understand in detail about Kernel SVM. Kernel SVMs are used for classification of nonlinear data. In the chart, nonlinear data is projected into a higher dimensional space via a mapping function where it becomes linearly separable. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-machine-learning.JPG In the higher dimension, a linear separating hyperplane can be derived and used for classification. A reverse projection of the higher dimension back to original feature space takes it back to nonlinear shape. As mentioned previously, SVMs can be kernelized to solve nonlinear classification problems. You can create a sample dataset for XOR gate (nonlinear problem) from NumPy. 100 samples will be assigned the class sample 1, and 100 samples will be assigned the class label -1. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-graph-machine-learning.JPG As you can see, this data is not linearly separable. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-non-separable.JPG You now use the kernel trick to classify XOR dataset created earlier. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-xor-machine-learning.JPG Naïve Bayes Classifier What is Naive Bayes Classifier? Have you ever wondered how your mail provider implements spam filtering or how online news channels perform news text classification or even how companies perform sentiment analysis of their audience on social media? All of this and more are done through a machine learning algorithm called Naive Bayes Classifier. Naive Bayes Named after Thomas Bayes from the 1700s who first coined this in the Western literature. Naive Bayes classifier works on the principle of conditional probability as given by the Bayes theorem. Advantages of Naive Bayes Classifier Listed below are six benefits of Naive Bayes Classifier. Very simple and easy to implement Needs less training data Handles both continuous and discrete data Highly scalable with the number of predictors and data points As it is fast, it can be used in real-time predictions Not sensitive to irrelevant features Bayes Theorem We will understand Bayes Theorem in detail from the points mentioned below. According to the Bayes model, the conditional probability P(Y|X) can be calculated as: P(Y|X) = P(X|Y)P(Y) / P(X) This means you have to estimate a very large number of P(X|Y) probabilities for a relatively small vector space X. For example, for a Boolean Y and 30 possible Boolean attributes in the X vector, you will have to estimate 3 billion probabilities P(X|Y). To make it practical, a Naïve Bayes classifier is used, which assumes conditional independence of P(X) to each other, with a given value of Y. This reduces the number of probability estimates to 2*30=60 in the above example. Naïve Bayes Classifier for SMS Spam Detection Consider a labeled SMS database having 5574 messages. It has messages as given below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/naive-bayes-spam-machine-learning.JPG Each message is marked as spam or ham in the data set. Let’s train a model with Naïve Bayes algorithm to detect spam from ham. The message lengths and their frequency (in the training dataset) are as shown below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/naive-bayes-spam-spam-detection.JPG Analyze the logic you use to train an algorithm to detect spam: Split each message into individual words/tokens (bag of words). Lemmatize the data (each word takes its base form, like “walking” or “walked” is replaced with “walk”). Convert data to vectors using scikit-learn module CountVectorizer. Run TFIDF to remove common words like “is,” “are,” “and.” Now apply scikit-learn module for Naïve Bayes MultinomialNB to get the Spam Detector. This spam detector can then be used to classify a random new message as spam or ham. Next, the accuracy of the spam detector is checked using the Confusion Matrix. For the SMS spam example above, the confusion matrix is shown on the right. Accuracy Rate = Correct / Total = (4827 + 592)/5574 = 97.21% Error Rate = Wrong / Total = (155 + 0)/5574 = 2.78% https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/confusion-matrix-machine-learning.JPG Although confusion Matrix is useful, some more precise metrics are provided by Precision and Recall. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/precision-recall-matrix-machine-learning.JPG Precision refers to the accuracy of positive predictions. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/precision-formula-machine-learning.JPG Recall refers to the ratio of positive instances that are correctly detected by the classifier (also known as True positive rate or TPR). https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/recall-formula-machine-learning.JPG Precision/Recall Trade-off To detect age-appropriate videos for kids, you need high precision (low recall) to ensure that only safe videos make the cut (even though a few safe videos may be left out). The high recall is needed (low precision is acceptable) in-store surveillance to catch shoplifters; a few false alarms are acceptable, but all shoplifters must be caught. Learn about Naive Bayes in detail. Click here! Decision Tree Classifier Some aspects of the Decision Tree Classifier mentioned below are. Decision Trees (DT) can be used both for classification and regression. The advantage of decision trees is that they require very little data preparation. They do not require feature scaling or centering at all. They are also the fundamental components of Random Forests, one of the most powerful ML algorithms. Unlike Random Forests and Neural Networks (which do black-box modeling), Decision Trees are white box models, which means that inner workings of these models are clearly understood. In the case of classification, the data is segregated based on a series of questions. Any new data point is assigned to the selected leaf node. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/decision-tree-classifier-machine-learning.JPG Start at the tree root and split the data on the feature using the decision algorithm, resulting in the largest information gain (IG). This splitting procedure is then repeated in an iterative process at each child node until the leaves are pure. This means that the samples at each node belonging to the same class. In practice, you can set a limit on the depth of the tree to prevent overfitting. The purity is compromised here as the final leaves may still have some impurity. The figure shows the classification of the Iris dataset. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/decision-tree-classifier-graph.JPG IRIS Decision Tree Let’s build a Decision Tree using scikit-learn for the Iris flower dataset and also visualize it using export_graphviz API. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-decision-tree-machine-learning.JPG The output of export_graphviz can be converted into png format: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-decision-tree-output.JPG Sample attribute stands for the number of training instances the node applies to. Value attribute stands for the number of training instances of each class the node applies to. Gini impurity measures the node’s impurity. A node is “pure” (gini=0) if all training instances it applies to belong to the same class. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/impurity-formula-machine-learning.JPG For example, for Versicolor (green color node), the Gini is 1-(0/54)2 -(49/54)2 -(5/54) 2 ≈ 0.168 https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-decision-tree-sample.JPG Decision Boundaries Let us learn to create decision boundaries below. For the first node (depth 0), the solid line splits the data (Iris-Setosa on left). Gini is 0 for Setosa node, so no further split is possible. The second node (depth 1) splits the data into Versicolor and Virginica. If max_depth were set as 3, a third split would happen (vertical dotted line). https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/decision-tree-boundaries.JPG For a sample with petal length 5 cm and petal width 1.5 cm, the tree traverses to depth 2 left node, so the probability predictions for this sample are 0% for Iris-Setosa (0/54), 90.7% for Iris-Versicolor (49/54), and 9.3% for Iris-Virginica (5/54) CART Training Algorithm Scikit-learn uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to train Decision Trees. CART algorithm: Split the data into two subsets using a single feature k and threshold tk (example, petal length < “2.45 cm”). This is done recursively for each node. k and tk are chosen such that they produce the purest subsets (weighted by their size). The objective is to minimize the cost function as given below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/cart-training-algorithm-machine-learning.JPG The algorithm stops executing if one of the following situations occurs: max_depth is reached No further splits are found for each node Other hyperparameters may be used to stop the tree: min_samples_split min_samples_leaf min_weight_fraction_leaf max_leaf_nodes Gini Impurity or Entropy Entropy is one more measure of impurity and can be used in place of Gini. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/gini-impurity-entrophy.JPG It is a degree of uncertainty, and Information Gain is the reduction that occurs in entropy as one traverses down the tree. Entropy is zero for a DT node when the node contains instances of only one class. Entropy for depth 2 left node in the example given above is: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/entrophy-for-depth-2.JPG Gini and Entropy both lead to similar trees. DT: Regularization The following figure shows two decision trees on the moons dataset. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/dt-regularization-machine-learning.JPG The decision tree on the right is restricted by min_samples_leaf = 4. The model on the left is overfitting, while the model on the right generalizes better. Random Forest Classifier Let us have an understanding of Random Forest Classifier below. A random forest can be considered an ensemble of decision trees (Ensemble learning). Random Forest algorithm: Draw a random bootstrap sample of size n (randomly choose n samples from the training set). Grow a decision tree from the bootstrap sample. At each node, randomly select d features. Split the node using the feature that provides the best split according to the objective function, for instance by maximizing the information gain. Repeat the steps 1 to 2 k times. (k is the number of trees you want to create, using a subset of samples) Aggregate the prediction by each tree for a new data point to assign the class label by majority vote (pick the group selected by the most number of trees and assign new data point to that group). Random Forests are opaque, which means it is difficult to visualize their inner workings. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/random-forest-classifier-graph.JPG However, the advantages outweigh their limitations since you do not have to worry about hyperparameters except k, which stands for the number of decision trees to be created from a subset of samples. RF is quite robust to noise from the individual decision trees. Hence, you need not prune individual decision trees. The larger the number of decision trees, the more accurate the Random Forest prediction is. (This, however, comes with higher computation cost). Key Takeaways Let us quickly run through what we have learned so far in this Classification tutorial. Classification algorithms are supervised learning methods to split data into classes. They can work on Linear Data as well as Nonlinear Data. Logistic Regression can classify data based on weighted parameters and sigmoid conversion to calculate the probability of classes. K-nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm uses similar features to classify data. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) classify data by detecting the maximum margin hyperplane between data classes. Naïve Bayes, a simplified Bayes Model, can help classify data using conditional probability models. Decision Trees are powerful classifiers and use tree splitting logic until pure or somewhat pure leaf node classes are attained. Random Forests apply Ensemble Learning to Decision Trees for more accurate classification predictions. Conclusion This completes ‘Classification’ tutorial. In the next tutorial, we will learn 'Unsupervised Learning with Clustering.'

To classify trades into buyer- and seller-initiated.

A comprehensive bundle of utilities for the estimation of probability of informed trading models: original PIN in Easley and O'Hara (1992) and Easley et al. (1996); Multilayer PIN (MPIN) in Ersan (2016); Adjusted PIN (AdjPIN) in Duarte and Young (2009); and volume-synchronized PIN (VPIN) in Easley et al. (2011, 2012). Implementations of various estimation methods suggested in the literature are included. Additional compelling features comprise posterior probabilities, an implementation of an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, and PIN decomposition into layers, and into bad/good components. Versatile data simulation tools, and trade classification algorithms are among the supplementary utilities. The package provides fast, compact, and precise utilities to tackle the sophisticated, error-prone, and time-consuming estimation procedure of informed trading, and this solely using the raw trade-level data.

As the most famous application of blockchain, cryptocurrency has suffered huge economic losses due to phishing scams. Our work shares phishing account information from Etherscan and the code for how to crawl it. In addition, the trans2vec algorithm for detection was shared. In our work, accounts and transactions in Ethereum are treated as nodes and edges, so detection of phishing accounts can be modeled as a node classification problem. This work starts from Etherscan exposed nodes reported by phishing points and randomly extracts the same number of non-phishing fraud nodes. A large Ethereum trading network was crawled from ethereum records through breadth search.

Master's degree project: Development of a trading algorithm which uses supervised machine learning classification techniques to generate buy/sell signals

Identify the software project, create business case, arrive at a problem statement. REQUIREMENT: Window XP, Internet, MS Office, etc. Problem Description: - 1. Introduction of AI and Machine Learning: - Artificial Intelligence applies machine learning, deep learning and other techniques to solve actual problems. Artificial intelligence (AI) brings the genuine human-to-machine interaction. Simply, Machine Learning is the algorithm that give computers the ability to learn from data and then make decisions and predictions, AI refers to idea where machines can execute tasks smartly. It is a faster process in learning the risk factors, and profitable opportunities. They have a feature of learning from their mistakes and experiences. When Machine learning is combined with Artificial Intelligence, it can be a large field to gather an immense amount of information and then rectify the errors and learn from further experiences, developing in a smarter, faster and accuracy handling technique. The main difference between Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence is , If it is written in python then it is probably machine learning, If it is written in power point then it is artificial intelligence. As there are many existing projects that are implemented using AI and Machine Learning , And one of the project i.e., Bitcoin Price Prediction :- Bitcoin (₿ ) (founder - Satoshi Nakamoto , Ledger start: 3 January 2009 ) is a digital currency, a type of electronic money. It is decentralized advanced cash without a national bank or single chairman that can be sent from client to client on the shared Bitcoin arrange without middle people's requirement. Machine learning models can likely give us the insight we need to learn about the future of Cryptocurrency. It will not tell us the future but it might tell us the general trend and direction to expect the prices to move. These machine learning models predict the future of Bitcoin by coding them out in Python. Machine learning and AI-assisted trading have attracted growing interest for the past few years. this approach is to test the hypothesis that the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market can be exploited to generate abnormal profits. the application of machine learning algorithms to the cryptocurrency market has been limited so far to the analysis of Bitcoin prices, using random forests , Bayesian neural network , long short-term memory neural network , and other algorithms. 2. Applications/Scope of AI and Machine Learning :- a) Sentiment Analysis :- It is the classification of subjective opinions or emotions (positive, negative, and neutral) within text data using natural language processing. b) It is Characterized as a use of computerized reasoning where accessible data is utilized through calculations to process or help the handling of factual information. BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTION USING AI AND MACHINE LEARNING: - The main aim of this is to find the actual Bitcoin price in US dollars can be predicted. The chance to make a model equipped for anticipating digital currencies fundamentally Bitcoin. # It works the prediction by taking the coinMarkup cap. # CoinMarketCap provides with historical data for Bitcoin price changes, keep a record of all the transactions by recording the amount of coins in circulation and the volume of coins traded in the last 24-hours. # Quandl is used to filter the dataset by using the MAT Lab properties. 3. Problem statement: - Some AI and Machine Learning problem statements are: - a) Data Privacy and Security: Once a company has dug up the data, privacy and security is eye-catching aspect that needs to be taken care of. b) Data Scarcity: The data is a very important aspect of AI, and labeled data is used to train machines to learn and make predictions. c) Data acquisition: In the process of machine learning, a large amount of data is used in the process of training and learning. d) High error susceptibility: In the process of artificial intelligence and machine learning, the high amount of data is used. Some problem statements of Bitcoin Price Prediction using AI and Machine Learning: - a) Experimental Phase Risk: It is less experimental than other counterparts. In addition, relative to traditional assets, its level can be assessed as high because this asset is not intended for conservative investors. b) Technology Risks: There is a technological risk to other cryptocurrencies in the form of the potential appearance of a more advanced cryptocurrency. Investors may simply not notice the moment when their virtual assets lose their real value. c) Price Variability: The variability of the value of cryptocurrency are the large volumes of exchange trading, the integration of Bitcoin with various companies, legislative initiatives of regulatory bodies and many other, sometimes disregarded phenomena. d) Consumer Protection: The property of the irreversibility of transactions in itself has little effect on the risks of investing in Bitcoin as an asset. e) Price Fluctuation Prediction: Since many investors care more about whether the sudden rise or fall is worth following. Bitcoin price often fluctuates by more than 10% (or even more than 30%) at some times. f) Lacks Government Regulation: Regulators in traditional financial markets are basically missing in the field of cryptocurrencies. For instance, fake news frequently affects the decisions of individual investors. g) It is difficult to use large interval data (e.g., day-level, and month-level data) . h) The change time of mining difficulties is much longer. Moreover, do not consider the news information since it is hard to determine the authenticity of a news or predict the occurrence of emergencies.

With WWW being the global platform, various fields inclusive to the same have emerged until hitherto. Due to ever-changing forms of cyber Security, it has become a necessity to classify Malicious websites so as to secure personal content. In this project we have implemented The State-Of-the-Art Decision Tree Machine Learning Models such as Random Forest and Decision Tree to classify URLs as malicious or amiable. Implementation of Classification algorithms for discrete data as well as normal regression model is used in the project. Malevolent URLs have been broadly used to mount different digital assaults including spamming, phishing and malware. Recognition of malignant URLs and distinguishing proof of danger types are basic to upset these assaults. Knowing the sort of a danger empowers assessment of seriousness of the assault and embraces a viable countermeasure. Existing strategies commonly distinguish vindictive URLs of a solitary assault type. In this paper, we propose technique utilizing AI to identify malevolent URLs of all the mainstream assault types. While the World Wide Web has become a stellar application on the Internet, it has likewise gotten a massive danger of digital assaults. Enemies have utilized the Web as a vehicle to convey malignant assaults, for example, phishing, spamming, and malware contamination. For instance, phishing ordinarily includes sending an email apparently from a dependable source to deceive individuals to click a URL (Uniform Resource Locator) contained in the email that joins to a fake page. To address Web-based assaults, an incredible exertion has been coordinated towards identification of noxious URLs. A typical countermeasure is to utilize a boycott of vindictive URLs, which can be built from different sources, particularly human criticisms that are exceptionally precise yet tedious. Boycotting acquires no bogus positives, however is successful just for known noxious URLs. It can't identify obscure malevolent URLs. The very idea of careful match in boycotting these renders it simple to be sidestepped. This shortcoming of blacklisting has been tended to by oddity-based location techniques intended to identify obscure vindictive URLs. In these strategies, a characterization model dependent on discriminative principles or highlights is worked with either information from the earlier or through machine learning. Choice of discriminative standards or highlights assumes a basic function for the presentation of a locator. Online malware assaults become one in everything about chief genuine dangers that need to be tended too frantically. Numerous methodologies that have stood out as promising manners by which of safeguard work, for example, malware grasp utilizing various boycotts. Nonetheless, these standard methodologies ordinarily neglect to watch new assaults due to the adaptability of malignant sites. Consequently, it's hard to deal with state-of-the-art boycotts with data concerning new vindictive sites. Malignant location identification assumes a significant part for a few network protection applications, and unmistakably AI moves toward square measure a promising course. In mix with protection imperatives on information sets of real client traffic, its irksome for scientists and product engineers to measure hostile to malware arrangements against huge scope information sets of practical net traffic. AI strategy [1] region unit utilized so as to characterize the online deals into malignant and benevolent URLs. The appearance of ongoing correspondence innovations has had enormous contact with in the development and advancement of organizations spamming over a few applications just as web based banking, online business, and long range informal communication. In actuality, in the present age it's almost required to have a web presence to run a famous endeavour. Accordingly, the significance of the overall net has ceaselessly been expanding. Unfortunately the mechanical promotions return in expansion to new unobtrusive strategies to assault and trick client. Such assaults grasp noxious sites that sell fake stock, financial extortion by fooling clients into uncovering delicate data that in the long run cause stealing of money or character, or maybe placing in malware inside the clients framework. There square measure a huge kind of procedures to actualize such assaults, similar to explicit hacking attempts, Derive-by abuses, Denial of administration [2], Distributed refusal of administration [1] and bunches of others. Concentrating the changeability of assaults, without a doubt new assault assortments, and furthermore the unnumbered settings inside which such assaults will appears, it's exhausting to style-solid frameworks to find digital security penetrates. The restrictions of customary security the board advancements are getting to an ever increasing extent genuine given this remarkable development of new security dangers, fast changes of new IT advancements, and critical deficiency of security experts. The vast majority of these assaulting strategies are acknowledged through spreading traded off URLs. A primary exploration exertion in pernicious URL recognition has zeroed in on choosing profoundly successful discriminative highlights. Existing techniques were intended to distinguish pernicious URLs of a solitary assault type, for example, spamming, phishing, or malware. In this paper, we propose a strategy utilizing Machine Learning Algorithms on how to distinguish malevolent URLs of all the well known assault types including phishing, spamming and malware contamination, and distinguish the assault types noxious URLs endeavour to dispatch.

The basis of this project involves analyzing Amgen future profitability based on its current business environment and financial performance. Technical Analysis, on the other hand, includes reading the charts and using statistical figures to identify the trends in the stock market. The dataset used for this analysis was downloaded from Yahoo finance for year 2009 to 2019. There are multiple variables in the dataset – date, open, high, low, volume. Adjusted close. The columns Open and Close represent the starting and final price at which the stock is traded on a day. High and Low represent the maximum, minimum price of the share for the day. The profit or loss calculation is usually determined by the closing price of a stock for the day, I used the adjusted closing price as the target variable. I downloaded data on the inflation rate, unemployment rate, Industrial Production Index, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items and Real Gross Domestic Product as independent variables, Quarterly Financial Report: U.S. Corporations: Cash Dividends Charged to Retained Earnings All Manufacturing: All Nondurable Manufacturing: Chemicals: Pharmaceuticals and Medicines Industry, Producer Price Index by Industry: Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing, 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, and Producer Price Index by Industry: Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing Index. The independent variables are economic parameters which was obtained from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) website. Methodology 1. Linear Regression: The linear regression model returns an equation that determines the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable. I used linear regression tool in Alteryx with ARIMA tool to forecast the stock prices for the year. The algorithm was trained with the historical data to see how the variables impact on the dependent variable. The test data was used to predict the adjusted closing price for the year and predicted a stock price of $193.38. 2. Support Vector Machines (SVM): Support Vector Networks (SVN), are a popular set of supervised learning algorithms originally developed for classification (categorical target) problems and can be used for regression (numerical target) problems. SVMs are memory efficient and can address many predictor variables. This model finds the best equation of one predictor, a plane (two predictors) or a hyperplane (three or more predictors) that maximally separates the groups of records, based on a measure of distance into different groups based on the target variable. A kernel function provides the measure of distance that causes to records to be placed in the same or different groups and involves taking a function of the predictor variables to define the distance metric. I used the SVM tool in Alteryx with ARIMA tool to forecast the stock prices for the year and predicted a stock price of $189.44. 3. Spline Model: The Spline Model tool was used because it provides the multivariate adaptive regression splines (or MARS) algorithm of Friedman. This statistical learning model self-determines which subset of fields best predict a target field of interest and can capture highly nonlinear relationships and interactions between fields. I used the Spline tool in Alteryx with ARIMA tool to forecast the stock prices for the year and predicted a stock price of $201.84. The results from the models was weighted by comparing the RMSE of each model. A lower RMSE indicates that the model’s predictions were closer to the actual values. However, a simpler model with the same RMSE as a more complex model is generally better, as simpler models are less likely to be overfit. Though the Spline model had a lower RMSE, the Linear Regression model had fewer variables. Thus, we combined the 3 models with the ARIMA forecast in a model ensemble, which allows us to use the results of multiple models. The forecasted stock price is $197.99 with 1.5% increase for 31st December 2019. Apart from economic parameters, stock price is affected by the news about the company and other factors like demonetization or merger/demerger of the companies. There are certain intangible factors which can often be impossible to predict beforehand hence the model predicts that the stock price of Amgen will continue to rise except there is a drastic downturn of the company.

This repository contains python code to create, backtest and automate intraday-trading algorithms in financial markets using Machine Learning (Regression, Classification) and Statistical (Mean-Reversion, Moving Averages, Momentum) trading strategies

📚 Columbia University FinTech class assignments: algorithmic trading (pandas, alpaca api, etc.), machine learning (classification, natural language processing, deep learning), blockchain (solidity)

Stock market prediction is an attempt of determining the future value of a stock traded on a stock exchange. This project focuses on classification problems, predicting the next-second price movement, and acting upon the insights generated from our models. We implemented multiple machine learning algorithms including logistic regression, support vector machines (SVM), Long- Short Term Memory (LSTM), and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to determine the trading action in the next minute. Using the predicted results from our models to generate the portfolio value over time, the support vector machine with a polynomial kernel performs the best among all of our models.

There are several factors which affect the price of a stock. Some of them are daily news articles, volume of that stock traded, sentiment in the market, profit of the company etc. Due to the advancement in technology a large amount of data about the stocks is generated every day in the form of news articles, analyst reviews, twitter data etc. The increasing amount of data is making it increasingly difficult to manually analyse the data to make strategic decisions. We implemented and compared the results of three classification algorithms (1) Naïve Bayes (2) J48 (3) Random Forest

The financial market is a dynamic and composite system where people can buy and sell currencies, stocks, equities and derivatives over virtual platforms supported by brokers. Stock markets are affected by many factors causing the uncertainty and high volatility in the market. Although humans can take orders and submit them to the market, automated trading systems (ATS) that are operated by the implementation of computer programs can perform better and with higher momentum in submitting orders than any human. Since most of the dealings in the markets are done by automated systems, it has now been well established that training the past data can help us in finding patterns in the movement of the markets which can be used to predict the future prices. If implemented successfully with a higher accuracy than existing systems, it could turn into a financial support system with minimal amount of risk. We will be using a Random Forest Classification algorithm as the dataset that we train is completely discrete and we will be using several indicators to calculate the data on which the training will be performed.

Compilation of all assignments for ASU-Fintech Bootcamp. Units Covered : Python Pandas API PyViz SQL Time Series Classification (Machine Learning) Natural Language Processing AWS Deep Learning Algorithmic Trading Blockchain Building Blocks Blockchain with Python Smart Contracts with Solidity Advanced Solidity

Image Classification for a City Dog Show Project Goal Improving your programming skills using Python In this project you will use a created image classifier to identify dog breeds. We ask you to focus on Python and not on the actual classifier (We will focus on building a classifier ourselves later in the program). Description: Your city is hosting a citywide dog show and you have volunteered to help the organizing committee with contestant registration. Every participant that registers must submit an image of their dog along with biographical information about their dog. The registration system tags the images based upon the biographical information. Some people are planning on registering pets that aren’t actual dogs. You need to use an already developed Python classifier to make sure the participants are dogs. Note, you DO NOT need to create the classifier. It will be provided to you. You will need to apply the Python tools you just learned to USE the classifier. Your Tasks: Using your Python skills, you will determine which image classification algorithm works the "best" on classifying images as "dogs" or "not dogs". Determine how well the "best" classification algorithm works on correctly identifying a dog's breed. If you are confused by the term image classifier look at it simply as a tool that has an input and an output. The Input is an image. The output determines what the image depicts. (for example: a dog). Be mindful of the fact that image classifiers do not always categorize the images correctly. (We will get to all those details much later on the program). Time how long each algorithm takes to solve the classification problem. With computational tasks, there is often a trade-off between accuracy and runtime. The more accurate an algorithm, the higher the likelihood that it will take more time to run and use more computational resources to run. For further clarifications, please check our FAQs here. Important Notes: For this image classification task you will be using an image classification application using a deep learning model called a convolutional neural network (often abbreviated as CNN). CNNs work particularly well for detecting features in images like colors, textures, and edges; then using these features to identify objects in the images. You'll use a CNN that has already learned the features from a giant dataset of 1.2 million images called ImageNet. There are different types of CNNs that have different structures (architectures) that work better or worse depending on your criteria. With this project you'll explore the three different architectures (AlexNet, VGG, and ResNet) and determine which is best for your application. We have provided you with a classifier function in classifier.py that will allow you to use these CNNs to classify your images. The test_classifier.py file contains an example program that demonstrates how to use the classifier function. For this project, you will be focusing on using your Python skills to complete these tasks using the classifier function; in the Neural Networks lesson you will be learning more about how these algorithms work. Remember that certain breeds of dog look very similar. The more images of two similar looking dog breeds that the algorithm has learned from, the more likely the algorithm will be able to distinguish between those two breeds. We have found the following breeds to look very similar: Great Pyrenees and Kuvasz, German Shepherd and Malinois, Beagle and Walker Hound, amongst others.

Performance Comparison of Supervised Classification Linear Machine Learning Algorithms in Scikit-Learn Applied to Algorithmic Trading using Python

The prediction of market price movement is an essential tool for decision-making in trading scenarios. However, there are several candidate methods for this task. Metalearning can be an important ally for the automatic selection of of methods, which can be machine learning algorithms for classification tasks, named here classification algorithms. In this work, we present an empirical evaluation of the application of metalearning for the selection of classification algorithms for the prediction of market price movement. Different setups and metrics were evaluated for the meta-target selection. Cumulative return was the metric that achieved the best results at the meta and base-levels. According to the experimental results, metalearning was a competitive selection strategy for the prediction of market price movement.

Genetic algorithm framework that evolves trading strategies by optimizing technical indicator combinations, stop-loss methods, and entry logic. Features market regime classification (Bull/Bear/Uncertain), Monte-Carlo robustness testing with reshuffled datasets, hybrid fitness scoring, and parallel backtesting. Python NumPy TensorBoard

A set of tools for classification(Naïve Bayes with Gaussian Distribution, K-Nearest Neighbours, Linear and Kernel SVM), regression(Linear Regression, Ridge Regression with Cross-Validation, Feature Selection and Polynomial Expansion), dataset-model-analysis(bias-variance trade-off visualization), clustering (K-means, Kernel K-means and Gaussian Mixture Model using EM algorithm)(Python)

A/B booking classification algorithm for prop trading firms

Two trading strategies built on prediction capabilities of machine learning algorithms (regression and classification).

The Bulk Volume Classification (BVC) algorithm identifies information-based trading activity by aggregating trade data, offering insights into market dynamics. Through regression analysis, BVC correlates absolute order imbalance with spread, informing trading strategies.

The application utilizes algorithmic trading for high-frequency stock market data, extracting live data from APIs. It calculates order flow imbalance (OFI) to predict future values, implements the Lee Ready algorithm for trade classification, and employs the VPIN algorithm to detect order flow toxicities.

Algorithmic swing trading bot that leverages a recurrent neural network (LSTM) for stock return classification. Coupled with insider trading dataset to reinforce trades following excessive buy/sell activity from company executives.

A hybrid algorithmic trading system leveraging XGBoost for trend classification and Autoencoders (Keras) for anomaly detection. Features a real-time bridge to MetaTrader 5, rigorous anti-lookahead backtesting engine, and dynamic risk management.

A modular Algorithmic Trading System for NIFTY 50. Includes a custom data pipeline (Spot/Futures/Options), Volatility Regime Classification using Gaussian HMM, and a 5/15 EMA strategy optimized with XGBoost & LSTM classifiers. Visualized via a Bloomberg-style Streamlit terminal.

•Built a classifier model based on linear support vector machine to determine unknown classification. •Optimized our model to work on out-of-sample data by applying a Gradient Descent algorithm. •Compared a model evaluation metric for different verification models to quantify the model performance. •Plotted Reciever Operating Characteristic curve to show the trade-off between clinical sensitivity and specificity for every possible combination of tests.

Create an analysis for your clients who are preparing to get into the cryptocurrency market. Specifically, create a report that includes what cryptocurrencies are on the trading market and how they could be grouped to create a classification system for a potential new investment. The data will need to be processed to fit the machine learning models, and since there is no known output for what the client is looking for we have to use unsupervised learning. To group the cryptocurrencies, we decided on a clustering algorithm.

We created a report that includes what cryptocurrencies are on the trading market and how they could be grouped to create a classification system for this new investment.The data Martha provided us was not ideal, so we processed to fit the machine learning models. Since there is no known output for what Martha is looking for, we decided to use unsupervised learning. To group the cryptocurrencies, Martha and us decided on a clustering algorithm. We used data visualizations to share our findings with the board.

We and Martha have done our research. We understand what unsupervised learning is used for, how to process data, how to cluster, how to reduce our dimensions, and how to reduce the principal components using PCA. It’s time to put all these skills to use by creating an analysis for your clients who are preparing to get into the cryptocurrency market. Martha is a senior manager for the Advisory Services Team at Accountability Accounting, one of your most important clients. Accountability Accounting, a prominent investment bank, is interested in offering a new cryptocurrency investment portfolio for its customers. The company, however, is lost in the vast universe of cryptocurrencies. So, they’ve asked us to create a report that includes what cryptocurrencies are on the trading market and how they could be grouped to create a classification system for this new investment. The data Martha will be working with is not ideal, so it will need to be processed to fit the machine learning models. Since there is no known output for what Martha is looking for, she has decided to use unsupervised learning. To group the cryptocurrencies, Martha decided on a clustering algorithm. She’ll use data visualizations to share her findings with the board.