:book: Better alternative to bets statistics spreadsheet. Built with Rails and Vue.js

NBA betting is a big business, accounting for upwards of $500 million in legal bets placed on every month games throughout its 82 game season. With this in mind, we wanted to explore how we could maximize our betting profits by making more accurate predictions on the out- comes of games through machine learning. We searched for the most thorough and reliable data available, eventually choosing to use the NBA’s own highly trusted statistical database website https://www.nba.com/stats/, along with a sports betting research website called from https://www.sportsbookreviewsonline.com). As is discussed in later sections, the raw data lends no feasible value to our task because game data only is available after a game outcome is known, so we spent considerable time cleaning and processing the data to curate statistical features. Using these features, we began implementing machine learning techniques (Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Neural Networks) to compare against a baseline model of predicting the home team to win in recent NBA seasons. We first implemented a modified 5-Fold Cross-Validation approach on all of our models, followed by an exploration into using a hold-out validation set and blending approach on the predictions from our models to see if we could improve our accuracy (primary performance metric). Overall, we found success with our modeling techniques, and our best performing models performed significantly higher than a baseline model and many pre-existing models.

This app is for entertainment and tracking purposes only. It does not facilitate real-money gambling, nor does it provide a platform to place actual bets. All 'antes' and 'bets' tracked within the app are for social accounting between friends only.

NFL Parlay Advisor is a Python tool that evaluates NFL parlays by converting American odds to implied probabilities, applying injury and team-strength adjustments, accounting for leg correlation, and computing expected value to surface potential +EV bets.