Stock Market Prediction Web App based on Machine Learning and Sentiment Analysis of Tweets (API keys included in code). The front end of the Web App is based on Flask and Wordpress. The App forecasts stock prices of the next seven days for any given stock under NASDAQ or NSE as input by the user. Predictions are made using three algorithms: ARIMA, LSTM, Linear Regression. The Web App combines the predicted prices of the next seven days with the sentiment analysis of tweets to give recommendation whether the price is going to rise or fall

Bitcoin price prediction algorithm using bayesian regression techniques

Stanford Project: Artificial Intelligence is changing virtually every aspect of our lives. Today’s algorithms accomplish tasks that until recently only expert humans could perform. As it relates to finance, this is an exciting time to adopt a disruptive technology that will transform how everyone invests for generations. Models that explain the returns of individual stocks generally use company and stock characteristics, e.g., the market prices of financial instruments and companies’ accounting data. These characteristics can also be used to predict expected stock returns out-of-sample. Most studies use simple linear models to form these predictions [1] or [2]. An increasing body of academic literature documents that more sophisticated tools from the Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) repertoire, which allow for nonlinear predictor interactions, can improve the stock return forecasts [3], [4] or [5]. The main goal of this project is to investigate whether modern DL techniques can be utilized to more efficiently predict the movements of the stock market. Specifically, we train a LSTM neural network with time series price-volume data and compare its out-of-sample return predictability with the performance of a simple logistic regression (our baseline model).

Classification - Machine Learning This is ‘Classification’ tutorial which is a part of the Machine Learning course offered by Simplilearn. We will learn Classification algorithms, types of classification algorithms, support vector machines(SVM), Naive Bayes, Decision Tree and Random Forest Classifier in this tutorial. Objectives Let us look at some of the objectives covered under this section of Machine Learning tutorial. Define Classification and list its algorithms Describe Logistic Regression and Sigmoid Probability Explain K-Nearest Neighbors and KNN classification Understand Support Vector Machines, Polynomial Kernel, and Kernel Trick Analyze Kernel Support Vector Machines with an example Implement the Naïve Bayes Classifier Demonstrate Decision Tree Classifier Describe Random Forest Classifier Classification: Meaning Classification is a type of supervised learning. It specifies the class to which data elements belong to and is best used when the output has finite and discrete values. It predicts a class for an input variable as well. There are 2 types of Classification: Binomial Multi-Class Classification: Use Cases Some of the key areas where classification cases are being used: To find whether an email received is a spam or ham To identify customer segments To find if a bank loan is granted To identify if a kid will pass or fail in an examination Classification: Example Social media sentiment analysis has two potential outcomes, positive or negative, as displayed by the chart given below. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/classification-example-machine-learning.JPG This chart shows the classification of the Iris flower dataset into its three sub-species indicated by codes 0, 1, and 2. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-flower-dataset-graph.JPG The test set dots represent the assignment of new test data points to one class or the other based on the trained classifier model. Types of Classification Algorithms Let’s have a quick look into the types of Classification Algorithm below. Linear Models Logistic Regression Support Vector Machines Nonlinear models K-nearest Neighbors (KNN) Kernel Support Vector Machines (SVM) Naïve Bayes Decision Tree Classification Random Forest Classification Logistic Regression: Meaning Let us understand the Logistic Regression model below. This refers to a regression model that is used for classification. This method is widely used for binary classification problems. It can also be extended to multi-class classification problems. Here, the dependent variable is categorical: y ϵ {0, 1} A binary dependent variable can have only two values, like 0 or 1, win or lose, pass or fail, healthy or sick, etc In this case, you model the probability distribution of output y as 1 or 0. This is called the sigmoid probability (σ). If σ(θ Tx) > 0.5, set y = 1, else set y = 0 Unlike Linear Regression (and its Normal Equation solution), there is no closed form solution for finding optimal weights of Logistic Regression. Instead, you must solve this with maximum likelihood estimation (a probability model to detect the maximum likelihood of something happening). It can be used to calculate the probability of a given outcome in a binary model, like the probability of being classified as sick or passing an exam. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/logistic-regression-example-graph.JPG Sigmoid Probability The probability in the logistic regression is often represented by the Sigmoid function (also called the logistic function or the S-curve): https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/sigmoid-function-machine-learning.JPG In this equation, t represents data values * the number of hours studied and S(t) represents the probability of passing the exam. Assume sigmoid function: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/sigmoid-probability-machine-learning.JPG g(z) tends toward 1 as z -> infinity , and g(z) tends toward 0 as z -> infinity K-nearest Neighbors (KNN) K-nearest Neighbors algorithm is used to assign a data point to clusters based on similarity measurement. It uses a supervised method for classification. The steps to writing a k-means algorithm are as given below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/knn-distribution-graph-machine-learning.JPG Choose the number of k and a distance metric. (k = 5 is common) Find k-nearest neighbors of the sample that you want to classify Assign the class label by majority vote. KNN Classification A new input point is classified in the category such that it has the most number of neighbors from that category. For example: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/knn-classification-machine-learning.JPG Classify a patient as high risk or low risk. Mark email as spam or ham. Keen on learning about Classification Algorithms in Machine Learning? Click here! Support Vector Machine (SVM) Let us understand Support Vector Machine (SVM) in detail below. SVMs are classification algorithms used to assign data to various classes. They involve detecting hyperplanes which segregate data into classes. SVMs are very versatile and are also capable of performing linear or nonlinear classification, regression, and outlier detection. Once ideal hyperplanes are discovered, new data points can be easily classified. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/support-vector-machines-graph-machine-learning.JPG The optimization objective is to find “maximum margin hyperplane” that is farthest from the closest points in the two classes (these points are called support vectors). In the given figure, the middle line represents the hyperplane. SVM Example Let’s look at this image below and have an idea about SVM in general. Hyperplanes with larger margins have lower generalization error. The positive and negative hyperplanes are represented by: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/positive-negative-hyperplanes-machine-learning.JPG Classification of any new input sample xtest : If w0 + wTxtest > 1, the sample xtest is said to be in the class toward the right of the positive hyperplane. If w0 + wTxtest < -1, the sample xtest is said to be in the class toward the left of the negative hyperplane. When you subtract the two equations, you get: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/equation-subtraction-machine-learning.JPG Length of vector w is (L2 norm length): https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/length-of-vector-machine-learning.JPG You normalize with the length of w to arrive at: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/normalize-equation-machine-learning.JPG SVM: Hard Margin Classification Given below are some points to understand Hard Margin Classification. The left side of equation SVM-1 given above can be interpreted as the distance between the positive (+ve) and negative (-ve) hyperplanes; in other words, it is the margin that can be maximized. Hence the objective of the function is to maximize with the constraint that the samples are classified correctly, which is represented as : https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/hard-margin-classification-machine-learning.JPG This means that you are minimizing ‖w‖. This also means that all positive samples are on one side of the positive hyperplane and all negative samples are on the other side of the negative hyperplane. This can be written concisely as : https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/hard-margin-classification-formula.JPG Minimizing ‖w‖ is the same as minimizing. This figure is better as it is differentiable even at w = 0. The approach listed above is called “hard margin linear SVM classifier.” SVM: Soft Margin Classification Given below are some points to understand Soft Margin Classification. To allow for linear constraints to be relaxed for nonlinearly separable data, a slack variable is introduced. (i) measures how much ith instance is allowed to violate the margin. The slack variable is simply added to the linear constraints. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/soft-margin-calculation-machine-learning.JPG Subject to the above constraints, the new objective to be minimized becomes: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/soft-margin-calculation-formula.JPG You have two conflicting objectives now—minimizing slack variable to reduce margin violations and minimizing to increase the margin. The hyperparameter C allows us to define this trade-off. Large values of C correspond to larger error penalties (so smaller margins), whereas smaller values of C allow for higher misclassification errors and larger margins. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/machine-learning-certification-video-preview.jpg SVM: Regularization The concept of C is the reverse of regularization. Higher C means lower regularization, which increases bias and lowers the variance (causing overfitting). https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/concept-of-c-graph-machine-learning.JPG IRIS Data Set The Iris dataset contains measurements of 150 IRIS flowers from three different species: Setosa Versicolor Viriginica Each row represents one sample. Flower measurements in centimeters are stored as columns. These are called features. IRIS Data Set: SVM Let’s train an SVM model using sci-kit-learn for the Iris dataset: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/svm-model-graph-machine-learning.JPG Nonlinear SVM Classification There are two ways to solve nonlinear SVMs: by adding polynomial features by adding similarity features Polynomial features can be added to datasets; in some cases, this can create a linearly separable dataset. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/nonlinear-classification-svm-machine-learning.JPG In the figure on the left, there is only 1 feature x1. This dataset is not linearly separable. If you add x2 = (x1)2 (figure on the right), the data becomes linearly separable. Polynomial Kernel In sci-kit-learn, one can use a Pipeline class for creating polynomial features. Classification results for the Moons dataset are shown in the figure. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/polynomial-kernel-machine-learning.JPG Polynomial Kernel with Kernel Trick Let us look at the image below and understand Kernel Trick in detail. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/polynomial-kernel-with-kernel-trick.JPG For large dimensional datasets, adding too many polynomial features can slow down the model. You can apply a kernel trick with the effect of polynomial features without actually adding them. The code is shown (SVC class) below trains an SVM classifier using a 3rd-degree polynomial kernel but with a kernel trick. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/polynomial-kernel-equation-machine-learning.JPG The hyperparameter coefθ controls the influence of high-degree polynomials. Kernel SVM Let us understand in detail about Kernel SVM. Kernel SVMs are used for classification of nonlinear data. In the chart, nonlinear data is projected into a higher dimensional space via a mapping function where it becomes linearly separable. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-machine-learning.JPG In the higher dimension, a linear separating hyperplane can be derived and used for classification. A reverse projection of the higher dimension back to original feature space takes it back to nonlinear shape. As mentioned previously, SVMs can be kernelized to solve nonlinear classification problems. You can create a sample dataset for XOR gate (nonlinear problem) from NumPy. 100 samples will be assigned the class sample 1, and 100 samples will be assigned the class label -1. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-graph-machine-learning.JPG As you can see, this data is not linearly separable. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-non-separable.JPG You now use the kernel trick to classify XOR dataset created earlier. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/kernel-svm-xor-machine-learning.JPG Naïve Bayes Classifier What is Naive Bayes Classifier? Have you ever wondered how your mail provider implements spam filtering or how online news channels perform news text classification or even how companies perform sentiment analysis of their audience on social media? All of this and more are done through a machine learning algorithm called Naive Bayes Classifier. Naive Bayes Named after Thomas Bayes from the 1700s who first coined this in the Western literature. Naive Bayes classifier works on the principle of conditional probability as given by the Bayes theorem. Advantages of Naive Bayes Classifier Listed below are six benefits of Naive Bayes Classifier. Very simple and easy to implement Needs less training data Handles both continuous and discrete data Highly scalable with the number of predictors and data points As it is fast, it can be used in real-time predictions Not sensitive to irrelevant features Bayes Theorem We will understand Bayes Theorem in detail from the points mentioned below. According to the Bayes model, the conditional probability P(Y|X) can be calculated as: P(Y|X) = P(X|Y)P(Y) / P(X) This means you have to estimate a very large number of P(X|Y) probabilities for a relatively small vector space X. For example, for a Boolean Y and 30 possible Boolean attributes in the X vector, you will have to estimate 3 billion probabilities P(X|Y). To make it practical, a Naïve Bayes classifier is used, which assumes conditional independence of P(X) to each other, with a given value of Y. This reduces the number of probability estimates to 2*30=60 in the above example. Naïve Bayes Classifier for SMS Spam Detection Consider a labeled SMS database having 5574 messages. It has messages as given below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/naive-bayes-spam-machine-learning.JPG Each message is marked as spam or ham in the data set. Let’s train a model with Naïve Bayes algorithm to detect spam from ham. The message lengths and their frequency (in the training dataset) are as shown below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/naive-bayes-spam-spam-detection.JPG Analyze the logic you use to train an algorithm to detect spam: Split each message into individual words/tokens (bag of words). Lemmatize the data (each word takes its base form, like “walking” or “walked” is replaced with “walk”). Convert data to vectors using scikit-learn module CountVectorizer. Run TFIDF to remove common words like “is,” “are,” “and.” Now apply scikit-learn module for Naïve Bayes MultinomialNB to get the Spam Detector. This spam detector can then be used to classify a random new message as spam or ham. Next, the accuracy of the spam detector is checked using the Confusion Matrix. For the SMS spam example above, the confusion matrix is shown on the right. Accuracy Rate = Correct / Total = (4827 + 592)/5574 = 97.21% Error Rate = Wrong / Total = (155 + 0)/5574 = 2.78% https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/confusion-matrix-machine-learning.JPG Although confusion Matrix is useful, some more precise metrics are provided by Precision and Recall. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/precision-recall-matrix-machine-learning.JPG Precision refers to the accuracy of positive predictions. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/precision-formula-machine-learning.JPG Recall refers to the ratio of positive instances that are correctly detected by the classifier (also known as True positive rate or TPR). https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/recall-formula-machine-learning.JPG Precision/Recall Trade-off To detect age-appropriate videos for kids, you need high precision (low recall) to ensure that only safe videos make the cut (even though a few safe videos may be left out). The high recall is needed (low precision is acceptable) in-store surveillance to catch shoplifters; a few false alarms are acceptable, but all shoplifters must be caught. Learn about Naive Bayes in detail. Click here! Decision Tree Classifier Some aspects of the Decision Tree Classifier mentioned below are. Decision Trees (DT) can be used both for classification and regression. The advantage of decision trees is that they require very little data preparation. They do not require feature scaling or centering at all. They are also the fundamental components of Random Forests, one of the most powerful ML algorithms. Unlike Random Forests and Neural Networks (which do black-box modeling), Decision Trees are white box models, which means that inner workings of these models are clearly understood. In the case of classification, the data is segregated based on a series of questions. Any new data point is assigned to the selected leaf node. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/decision-tree-classifier-machine-learning.JPG Start at the tree root and split the data on the feature using the decision algorithm, resulting in the largest information gain (IG). This splitting procedure is then repeated in an iterative process at each child node until the leaves are pure. This means that the samples at each node belonging to the same class. In practice, you can set a limit on the depth of the tree to prevent overfitting. The purity is compromised here as the final leaves may still have some impurity. The figure shows the classification of the Iris dataset. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/decision-tree-classifier-graph.JPG IRIS Decision Tree Let’s build a Decision Tree using scikit-learn for the Iris flower dataset and also visualize it using export_graphviz API. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-decision-tree-machine-learning.JPG The output of export_graphviz can be converted into png format: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-decision-tree-output.JPG Sample attribute stands for the number of training instances the node applies to. Value attribute stands for the number of training instances of each class the node applies to. Gini impurity measures the node’s impurity. A node is “pure” (gini=0) if all training instances it applies to belong to the same class. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/impurity-formula-machine-learning.JPG For example, for Versicolor (green color node), the Gini is 1-(0/54)2 -(49/54)2 -(5/54) 2 ≈ 0.168 https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/iris-decision-tree-sample.JPG Decision Boundaries Let us learn to create decision boundaries below. For the first node (depth 0), the solid line splits the data (Iris-Setosa on left). Gini is 0 for Setosa node, so no further split is possible. The second node (depth 1) splits the data into Versicolor and Virginica. If max_depth were set as 3, a third split would happen (vertical dotted line). https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/decision-tree-boundaries.JPG For a sample with petal length 5 cm and petal width 1.5 cm, the tree traverses to depth 2 left node, so the probability predictions for this sample are 0% for Iris-Setosa (0/54), 90.7% for Iris-Versicolor (49/54), and 9.3% for Iris-Virginica (5/54) CART Training Algorithm Scikit-learn uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to train Decision Trees. CART algorithm: Split the data into two subsets using a single feature k and threshold tk (example, petal length < “2.45 cm”). This is done recursively for each node. k and tk are chosen such that they produce the purest subsets (weighted by their size). The objective is to minimize the cost function as given below: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/cart-training-algorithm-machine-learning.JPG The algorithm stops executing if one of the following situations occurs: max_depth is reached No further splits are found for each node Other hyperparameters may be used to stop the tree: min_samples_split min_samples_leaf min_weight_fraction_leaf max_leaf_nodes Gini Impurity or Entropy Entropy is one more measure of impurity and can be used in place of Gini. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/gini-impurity-entrophy.JPG It is a degree of uncertainty, and Information Gain is the reduction that occurs in entropy as one traverses down the tree. Entropy is zero for a DT node when the node contains instances of only one class. Entropy for depth 2 left node in the example given above is: https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/entrophy-for-depth-2.JPG Gini and Entropy both lead to similar trees. DT: Regularization The following figure shows two decision trees on the moons dataset. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/dt-regularization-machine-learning.JPG The decision tree on the right is restricted by min_samples_leaf = 4. The model on the left is overfitting, while the model on the right generalizes better. Random Forest Classifier Let us have an understanding of Random Forest Classifier below. A random forest can be considered an ensemble of decision trees (Ensemble learning). Random Forest algorithm: Draw a random bootstrap sample of size n (randomly choose n samples from the training set). Grow a decision tree from the bootstrap sample. At each node, randomly select d features. Split the node using the feature that provides the best split according to the objective function, for instance by maximizing the information gain. Repeat the steps 1 to 2 k times. (k is the number of trees you want to create, using a subset of samples) Aggregate the prediction by each tree for a new data point to assign the class label by majority vote (pick the group selected by the most number of trees and assign new data point to that group). Random Forests are opaque, which means it is difficult to visualize their inner workings. https://www.simplilearn.com/ice9/free_resources_article_thumb/random-forest-classifier-graph.JPG However, the advantages outweigh their limitations since you do not have to worry about hyperparameters except k, which stands for the number of decision trees to be created from a subset of samples. RF is quite robust to noise from the individual decision trees. Hence, you need not prune individual decision trees. The larger the number of decision trees, the more accurate the Random Forest prediction is. (This, however, comes with higher computation cost). Key Takeaways Let us quickly run through what we have learned so far in this Classification tutorial. Classification algorithms are supervised learning methods to split data into classes. They can work on Linear Data as well as Nonlinear Data. Logistic Regression can classify data based on weighted parameters and sigmoid conversion to calculate the probability of classes. K-nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm uses similar features to classify data. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) classify data by detecting the maximum margin hyperplane between data classes. Naïve Bayes, a simplified Bayes Model, can help classify data using conditional probability models. Decision Trees are powerful classifiers and use tree splitting logic until pure or somewhat pure leaf node classes are attained. Random Forests apply Ensemble Learning to Decision Trees for more accurate classification predictions. Conclusion This completes ‘Classification’ tutorial. In the next tutorial, we will learn 'Unsupervised Learning with Clustering.'

Introduction Parkinson’s Disease is the second most prevalent neurodegenerative disorder after Alzheimer’s, affecting more than 10 million people worldwide. Parkinson’s is characterized primarily by the deterioration of motor and cognitive ability. There is no single test which can be administered for diagnosis. Instead, doctors must perform a careful clinical analysis of the patient’s medical history. Unfortunately, this method of diagnosis is highly inaccurate. A study from the National Institute of Neurological Disorders finds that early diagnosis (having symptoms for 5 years or less) is only 53% accurate. This is not much better than random guessing, but an early diagnosis is critical to effective treatment. Because of these difficulties, I investigate a machine learning approach to accurately diagnose Parkinson’s, using a dataset of various speech features (a non-invasive yet characteristic tool) from the University of Oxford. Why speech features? Speech is very predictive and characteristic of Parkinson’s disease; almost every Parkinson’s patient experiences severe vocal degradation (inability to produce sustained phonations, tremor, hoarseness), so it makes sense to use voice to diagnose the disease. Voice analysis gives the added benefit of being non-invasive, inexpensive, and very easy to extract clinically. Background Parkinson's Disease Parkinson’s is a progressive neurodegenerative condition resulting from the death of the dopamine containing cells of the substantia nigra (which plays an important role in movement). Symptoms include: “frozen” facial features, bradykinesia (slowness of movement), akinesia (impairment of voluntary movement), tremor, and voice impairment. Typically, by the time the disease is diagnosed, 60% of nigrostriatal neurons have degenerated, and 80% of striatal dopamine have been depleted. Performance Metrics TP = true positive, FP = false positive, TN = true negative, FN = false negative Accuracy: (TP+TN)/(P+N) Matthews Correlation Coefficient: 1=perfect, 0=random, -1=completely inaccurate Algorithms Employed Logistic Regression (LR): Uses the sigmoid logistic equation with weights (coefficient values) and biases (constants) to model the probability of a certain class for binary classification. An output of 1 represents one class, and an output of 0 represents the other. Training the model will learn the optimal weights and biases. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA): Assumes that the data is Gaussian and each feature has the same variance. LDA estimates the mean and variance for each class from the training data, and then uses properties of statistics (Bayes theorem , Gaussian distribution, etc) to compute the probability of a particular instance belonging to a given class. The class with the largest probability is the prediction. k Nearest Neighbors (KNN): Makes predictions about the validation set using the entire training set. KNN makes a prediction about a new instance by searching through the entire set to find the k “closest” instances. “Closeness” is determined using a proximity measurement (Euclidean) across all features. The class that the majority of the k closest instances belong to is the class that the model predicts the new instance to be. Decision Tree (DT): Represented by a binary tree, where each root node represents an input variable and a split point, and each leaf node contains an output used to make a prediction. Neural Network (NN): Models the way the human brain makes decisions. Each neuron takes in 1+ inputs, and then uses an activation function to process the input with weights and biases to produce an output. Neurons can be arranged into layers, and multiple layers can form a network to model complex decisions. Training the network involves using the training instances to optimize the weights and biases. Naive Bayes (NB): Simplifies the calculation of probabilities by assuming that all features are independent of one another (a strong but effective assumption). Employs Bayes Theorem to calculate the probabilities that the instance to be predicted is in each class, then finds the class with the highest probability. Gradient Boost (GB): Generally used when seeking a model with very high predictive performance. Used to reduce bias and variance (“error”) by combining multiple “weak learners” (not very good models) to create a “strong learner” (high performance model). Involves 3 elements: a loss function (error function) to be optimized, a weak learner (decision tree) to make predictions, and an additive model to add trees to minimize the loss function. Gradient descent is used to minimize error after adding each tree (one by one). Engineering Goal Produce a machine learning model to diagnose Parkinson’s disease given various features of a patient’s speech with at least 90% accuracy and/or a Matthews Correlation Coefficient of at least 0.9. Compare various algorithms and parameters to determine the best model for predicting Parkinson’s. Dataset Description Source: the University of Oxford 195 instances (147 subjects with Parkinson’s, 48 without Parkinson’s) 22 features (elements that are possibly characteristic of Parkinson’s, such as frequency, pitch, amplitude / period of the sound wave) 1 label (1 for Parkinson’s, 0 for no Parkinson’s) Project Pipeline pipeline Summary of Procedure Split the Oxford Parkinson’s Dataset into two parts: one for training, one for validation (evaluate how well the model performs) Train each of the following algorithms with the training set: Logistic Regression, Linear Discriminant Analysis, k Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree, Neural Network, Naive Bayes, Gradient Boost Evaluate results using the validation set Repeat for the following training set to validation set splits: 80% training / 20% validation, 75% / 25%, and 70% / 30% Repeat for a rescaled version of the dataset (scale all the numbers in the dataset to a range from 0 to 1: this helps to reduce the effect of outliers) Conduct 5 trials and average the results Data a_o a_r m_o m_r Data Analysis In general, the models tended to perform the best (both in terms of accuracy and Matthews Correlation Coefficient) on the rescaled dataset with a 75-25 train-test split. The two highest performing algorithms, k Nearest Neighbors and the Neural Network, both achieved an accuracy of 98%. The NN achieved a MCC of 0.96, while KNN achieved a MCC of 0.94. These figures outperform most existing literature and significantly outperform current methods of diagnosis. Conclusion and Significance These robust results suggest that a machine learning approach can indeed be implemented to significantly improve diagnosis methods of Parkinson’s disease. Given the necessity of early diagnosis for effective treatment, my machine learning models provide a very promising alternative to the current, rather ineffective method of diagnosis. Current methods of early diagnosis are only 53% accurate, while my machine learning model produces 98% accuracy. This 45% increase is critical because an accurate, early diagnosis is needed to effectively treat the disease. Typically, by the time the disease is diagnosed, 60% of nigrostriatal neurons have degenerated, and 80% of striatal dopamine have been depleted. With an earlier diagnosis, much of this degradation could have been slowed or treated. My results are very significant because Parkinson’s affects over 10 million people worldwide who could benefit greatly from an early, accurate diagnosis. Not only is my machine learning approach more accurate in terms of diagnostic accuracy, it is also more scalable, less expensive, and therefore more accessible to people who might not have access to established medical facilities and professionals. The diagnosis is also much simpler, requiring only a 10-15 second voice recording and producing an immediate diagnosis. Future Research Given more time and resources, I would investigate the following: Create a mobile application which would allow the user to record his/her voice, extract the necessary vocal features, and feed it into my machine learning model to diagnose Parkinson’s. Use larger datasets in conjunction with the University of Oxford dataset. Tune and improve my models even further to achieve even better results. Investigate different structures and types of neural networks. Construct a novel algorithm specifically suited for the prediction of Parkinson’s. Generalize my findings and algorithms for all types of dementia disorders, such as Alzheimer’s. References Bind, Shubham. "A Survey of Machine Learning Based Approaches for Parkinson Disease Prediction." International Journal of Computer Science and Information Technologies 6 (2015): n. pag. International Journal of Computer Science and Information Technologies. 2015. Web. 8 Mar. 2017. Brooks, Megan. "Diagnosing Parkinson's Disease Still Challenging." Medscape Medical News. National Institute of Neurological Disorders, 31 July 2014. Web. 20 Mar. 2017. Exploiting Nonlinear Recurrence and Fractal Scaling Properties for Voice Disorder Detection', Little MA, McSharry PE, Roberts SJ, Costello DAE, Moroz IM. BioMedical Engineering OnLine 2007, 6:23 (26 June 2007) Hashmi, Sumaiya F. "A Machine Learning Approach to Diagnosis of Parkinson’s Disease."Claremont Colleges Scholarship. Claremont College, 2013. Web. 10 Mar. 2017. Karplus, Abraham. "Machine Learning Algorithms for Cancer Diagnosis." Machine Learning Algorithms for Cancer Diagnosis (n.d.): n. pag. Mar. 2012. Web. 20 Mar. 2017. Little, Max. "Parkinsons Data Set." UCI Machine Learning Repository. University of Oxford, 26 June 2008. Web. 20 Feb. 2017. Ozcift, Akin, and Arif Gulten. "Classifier Ensemble Construction with Rotation Forest to Improve Medical Diagnosis Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms." Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine 104.3 (2011): 443-51. Semantic Scholar. 2011. Web. 15 Mar. 2017. "Parkinson’s Disease Dementia." UCI MIND. N.p., 19 Oct. 2015. Web. 17 Feb. 2017. Salvatore, C., A. Cerasa, I. Castiglioni, F. Gallivanone, A. Augimeri, M. Lopez, G. Arabia, M. Morelli, M.c. Gilardi, and A. Quattrone. "Machine Learning on Brain MRI Data for Differential Diagnosis of Parkinson's Disease and Progressive Supranuclear Palsy."Journal of Neuroscience Methods 222 (2014): 230-37. 2014. Web. 18 Mar. 2017. Shahbakhi, Mohammad, Danial Taheri Far, and Ehsan Tahami. "Speech Analysis for Diagnosis of Parkinson’s Disease Using Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machine."Journal of Biomedical Science and Engineering 07.04 (2014): 147-56. Scientific Research. July 2014. Web. 2 Mar. 2017. "Speech and Communication." Speech and Communication. Parkinson's Disease Foundation, n.d. Web. 22 Mar. 2017. Sriram, Tarigoppula V. S., M. Venkateswara Rao, G. V. Satya Narayana, and D. S. V. G. K. Kaladhar. "Diagnosis of Parkinson Disease Using Machine Learning and Data Mining Systems from Voice Dataset." SpringerLink. Springer, Cham, 01 Jan. 1970. Web. 17 Mar. 2017.

# AD-Prediction Convolutional Neural Networks for Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Using Brain MRI Image ## Abstract Alzheimers disease (AD) is characterized by severe memory loss and cognitive impairment. It associates with significant brain structure changes, which can be measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan. The observable preclinical structure changes provides an opportunity for AD early detection using image classification tools, like convolutional neural network (CNN). However, currently most AD related studies were limited by sample size. Finding an efficient way to train image classifier on limited data is critical. In our project, we explored different transfer-learning methods based on CNN for AD prediction brain structure MRI image. We find that both pretrained 2D AlexNet with 2D-representation method and simple neural network with pretrained 3D autoencoder improved the prediction performance comparing to a deep CNN trained from scratch. The pretrained 2D AlexNet performed even better (**86%**) than the 3D CNN with autoencoder (**77%**). ## Method #### 1. Data In this project, we used public brain MRI data from **Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI)** Study. ADNI is an ongoing, multicenter cohort study, started from 2004. It focuses on understanding the diagnostic and predictive value of Alzheimers disease specific biomarkers. The ADNI study has three phases: ADNI1, ADNI-GO, and ADNI2. Both ADNI1 and ADNI2 recruited new AD patients and normal control as research participants. Our data included a total of 686 structure MRI scans from both ADNI1 and ADNI2 phases, with 310 AD cases and 376 normal controls. We randomly derived the total sample into training dataset (n = 519), validation dataset (n = 100), and testing dataset (n = 67). #### 2. Image preprocessing Image preprocessing were conducted using Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software, version 12. The original MRI scans were first skull-stripped and segmented using segmentation algorithm based on 6-tissue probability mapping and then normalized to the International Consortium for Brain Mapping template of European brains using affine registration. Other configuration includes: bias, noise, and global intensity normalization. The standard preprocessing process output 3D image files with an uniform size of 121x145x121. Skull-stripping and normalization ensured the comparability between images by transforming the original brain image into a standard image space, so that same brain substructures can be aligned at same image coordinates for different participants. Diluted or enhanced intensity was used to compensate the structure changes. the In our project, we used both whole brain (including both grey matter and white matter) and grey matter only. #### 3. AlexNet and Transfer Learning Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are very similar to ordinary Neural Networks. A CNN consists of an input and an output layer, as well as multiple hidden layers. The hidden layers are either convolutional, pooling or fully connected. ConvNet architectures make the explicit assumption that the inputs are images, which allows us to encode certain properties into the architecture. These then make the forward function more efficient to implement and vastly reduce the amount of parameters in the network. #### 3.1. AlexNet The net contains eight layers with weights; the first five are convolutional and the remaining three are fully connected. The overall architecture is shown in Figure 1. The output of the last fully-connected layer is fed to a 1000-way softmax which produces a distribution over the 1000 class labels. AlexNet maximizes the multinomial logistic regression objective, which is equivalent to maximizing the average across training cases of the log-probability of the correct label under the prediction distribution. The kernels of the second, fourth, and fifth convolutional layers are connected only to those kernel maps in the previous layer which reside on the same GPU (as shown in Figure1). The kernels of the third convolutional layer are connected to all kernel maps in the second layer. The neurons in the fully connected layers are connected to all neurons in the previous layer. Response-normalization layers follow the first and second convolutional layers. Max-pooling layers follow both response-normalization layers as well as the fifth convolutional layer. The ReLU non-linearity is applied to the output of every convolutional and fully-connected layer.  The first convolutional layer filters the 224x224x3 input image with 96 kernels of size 11x11x3 with a stride of 4 pixels (this is the distance between the receptive field centers of neighboring neurons in a kernel map). The second convolutional layer takes as input the (response-normalized and pooled) output of the first convolutional layer and filters it with 256 kernels of size 5x5x48. The third, fourth, and fifth convolutional layers are connected to one another without any intervening pooling or normalization layers. The third convolutional layer has 384 kernels of size 3x3x256 connected to the (normalized, pooled) outputs of the second convolutional layer. The fourth convolutional layer has 384 kernels of size 3x3x192 , and the fifth convolutional layer has 256 kernels of size 3x3x192. The fully-connected layers have 4096 neurons each. #### 3.2. Transfer Learning Training an entire Convolutional Network from scratch (with random initialization) is impractical[14] because it is relatively rare to have a dataset of sufficient size. An alternative is to pretrain a Conv-Net on a very large dataset (e.g. ImageNet), and then use the ConvNet either as an initialization or a fixed feature extractor for the task of interest. Typically, there are three major transfer learning scenarios: **ConvNet as fixed feature extractor:** We can take a ConvNet pretrained on ImageNet, and remove the last fully-connected layer, then treat the rest structure as a fixed feature extractor for the target dataset. In AlexNet, this would be a 4096-D vector. Usually, we call these features as CNN codes. Once we get these features, we can train a linear classifier (e.g. linear SVM or Softmax classifier) for our target dataset. **Fine-tuning the ConvNet:** Another idea is not only replace the last fully-connected layer in the classifier, but to also fine-tune the parameters of the pretrained network. Due to overfitting concerns, we can only fine-tune some higher-level part of the network. This suggestion is motivated by the observation that earlier features in a ConvNet contains more generic features (e.g. edge detectors or color blob detectors) that can be useful for many kind of tasks. But the later layer of the network becomes progressively more specific to the details of the classes contained in the original dataset. **Pretrained models:** The released pretrained model is usually the final ConvNet checkpoint. So it is common to see people use the network for fine-tuning. #### 4. 3D Autoencoder and Convolutional Neural Network We take a two-stage approach where we first train a 3D sparse autoencoder to learn filters for convolution operations, and then build a convolutional neural network whose first layer uses the filters learned with the autoencoder.  #### 4.1. Sparse Autoencoder An autoencoder is a 3-layer neural network that is used to extract features from an input such as an image. Sparse representations can provide a simple interpretation of the input data in terms of a small number of \parts by extracting the structure hidden in the data. The autoencoder has an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer, and the input and output layers have same number of units, while the hidden layer contains more units for a sparse and overcomplete representation. The encoder function maps input x to representation h, and the decoder function maps the representation h to the output x. In our problem, we extract 3D patches from scans as the input to the network. The decoder function aims to reconstruct the input form the hidden representation h. #### 4.2. 3D Convolutional Neural Network Training the 3D convolutional neural network(CNN) is the second stage. The CNN we use in this project has one convolutional layer, one pooling layer, two linear layers, and finally a log softmax layer. After training the sparse autoencoder, we take the weights and biases of the encoder from trained model, and use them a 3D filter of a 3D convolutional layer of the 1-layer convolutional neural network. Figure 2 shows the architecture of the network. #### 5. Tools In this project, we used Nibabel for MRI image processing and PyTorch Neural Networks implementation.

🤖 HealthCare ChatBot Major -1 (4th year - 7th semester) Health Care Chat-Bot is a Healthcare Domain Chatbot to simulate the predictions of a General Physician. ChatBot can be described as software that can chat with people using artificial intelligence. These software are used to perform tasks such as quickly responding to users, informing them, helping to purchase products and providing better service to customers. We have made a healthcare based chatbot. The three main areas where chatbots can be used are diagnostics, patient engagement outside medical facilities, and mental health. In our major we are working on diagnostic. 📃 Brief A chatbot is an artificially intelligent creature which can converse with humans. This could be text-based, or a spoken conversation. In our project we will be using Python as it is currently the most popular language for creating an AI chatbot. In the middle of AI chatbot, architecture is the Natural Language Processing (NLP) layer. This project aims to build an user-friendly healthcare chatbot which facilitates the job of a healthcare provider and helps improve their performance by interacting with users in a human-like way. Through chatbots one can communicate with text or voice interface and get reply through artificial intelligence Typically, a chat bot will communicate with a real person. Chat bots are used in applications such as E-commerce customer service, Call centres, Internet gaming,etc. Chatbots are programs built to automatically engage with received messages. Chatbots can be programmed to respond the same way each time, to respond differently to messages containing certain keywords and even to use machine learning to adapt their responses to fit the situation. A developing number of hospitals, nursing homes, and even private centres, presently utilize online Chatbots for human services on their sites. These bots connect with potential patients visiting the site, helping them discover specialists, booking their appointments, and getting them access to the correct treatment. In any case, the utilization of artificial intelligence in an industry where individuals’ lives could be in question, still starts misgivings in individuals. It brings up issues about whether the task mentioned above ought to be assigned to human staff. This healthcare chatbot system will help hospitals to provide healthcare support online 24 x 7, it answers deep as well as general questions. It also helps to generate leads and automatically delivers the information of leads to sales. By asking the questions in series it helps patients by guiding what exactly he/she is looking for. 📜 Problem Statement During the pandemic, it is more important than ever to get your regular check-ups and to continue to take prescription medications. The healthier you are, the more likely you are to recover quickly from an illness. In this time patients or health care workers within their practice, providers are deferring elective and preventive visits, such as annual physicals. For some, it is not possible to consult online. In this case, to avoid false information, our project can be of help. 📇 Features Register Screen. Sign-in Screen. Generates database for user login system. Offers you a GUI Based Chatbot for patients for diagnosing. [A pragmatic Approach for Diagnosis] Reccomends an appropriate doctor to you for the following symptom. 📜 Modules Used Our program uses a number of python modules to work properly: tkinter os webbrowser numpy pandas matplotlib 📃 Algorithm We have used Decision tree for our health care based chat bot. Decision Tree is a Supervised learning technique that can be used for both classification and Regression problems, but mostly it is preferred for solving Classification problems. It is a tree-structured classifier, where internal nodes represent the features of a dataset, branches represent the decision rules and each leaf node represents the outcome.It usually mimic human thinking ability while making a decision, so it is easy to understand. :suspect: Project Members Anushka Bansal - 500067844 - R164218014 Shreya Sharma - 500068573 - R164218070 Silvi - 500069092 - R164218072 Ishika Agrawal - 500071154 - R164218097

An ANN is a model based on a collection of connected units or nodes called "artificial neurons", which loosely model the neurons in a biological brain. Each connection, like the synapses in a biological brain, can transmit information, a "signal", from one artificial neuron to another. An artificial neuron that receives a signal can process it and then signal additional artificial neurons connected to it. In common ANN implementations, the signal at a connection between artificial neurons is a real number, and the output of each artificial neuron is computed by some non-linear function of the sum of its inputs. The connections between artificial neurons are called "edges". Artificial neurons and edges typically have a weight that adjusts as learning proceeds. The weight increases or decreases the strength of the signal at a connection. Artificial neurons may have a threshold such that the signal is only sent if the aggregate signal crosses that threshold. Typically, artificial neurons are aggregated into layers. Different layers may perform different kinds of transformations on their inputs. Signals travel from the first layer (the input layer) to the last layer (the output layer), possibly after traversing the layers multiple times. The original goal of the ANN approach was to solve problems in the same way that a human brain would. However, over time, attention moved to performing specific tasks, leading to deviations from biology. Artificial neural networks have been used on a variety of tasks, including computer vision, speech recognition, machine translation, social network filtering, playing board and video games and medical diagnosis. Deep learning consists of multiple hidden layers in an artificial neural network. This approach tries to model the way the human brain processes light and sound into vision and hearing. Some successful applications of deep learning are computer vision and speech recognition.[68] Decision trees Main article: Decision tree learning Decision tree learning uses a decision tree as a predictive model to go from observations about an item (represented in the branches) to conclusions about the item's target value (represented in the leaves). It is one of the predictive modeling approaches used in statistics, data mining, and machine learning. Tree models where the target variable can take a discrete set of values are called classification trees; in these tree structures, leaves represent class labels and branches represent conjunctions of features that lead to those class labels. Decision trees where the target variable can take continuous values (typically real numbers) are called regression trees. In decision analysis, a decision tree can be used to visually and explicitly represent decisions and decision making. In data mining, a decision tree describes data, but the resulting classification tree can be an input for decision making. Support vector machines Main article: Support vector machines Support vector machines (SVMs), also known as support vector networks, are a set of related supervised learning methods used for classification and regression. Given a set of training examples, each marked as belonging to one of two categories, an SVM training algorithm builds a model that predicts whether a new example falls into one category or the other.[69] An SVM training algorithm is a non-probabilistic, binary, linear classifier, although methods such as Platt scaling exist to use SVM in a probabilistic classification setting. In addition to performing linear classification, SVMs can efficiently perform a non-linear classification using what is called the kernel trick, implicitly mapping their inputs into high-dimensional feature spaces. Illustration of linear regression on a data set. Regression analysis Main article: Regression analysis Regression analysis encompasses a large variety of statistical methods to estimate the relationship between input variables and their associated features. Its most common form is linear regression, where a single line is drawn to best fit the given data according to a mathematical criterion such as ordinary least squares. The latter is often extended by regularization (mathematics) methods to mitigate overfitting and bias, as in ridge regression. When dealing with non-linear problems, go-to models include polynomial regression (for example, used for trendline fitting in Microsoft Excel[70]), logistic regression (often used in statistical classification) or even kernel regression, which introduces non-linearity by taking advantage of the kernel trick to implicitly map input variables to higher-dimensional space. Bayesian networks Main article: Bayesian network A simple Bayesian network. Rain influences whether the sprinkler is activated, and both rain and the sprinkler influence whether the grass is wet. A Bayesian network, belief network, or directed acyclic graphical model is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional independence with a directed acyclic graph (DAG). For example, a Bayesian network could represent the probabilistic relationships between diseases and symptoms. Given symptoms, the network can be used to compute the probabilities of the presence of various diseases. Efficient algorithms exist that perform inference and learning. Bayesian networks that model sequences of variables, like speech signals or protein sequences, are called dynamic Bayesian networks. Generalizations of Bayesian networks that can represent and solve decision problems under uncertainty are called influence diagrams. Genetic algorithms Main article: Genetic algorithm A genetic algorithm (GA) is a search algorithm and heuristic technique that mimics the process of natural selection, using methods such as mutation and crossover to generate new genotypes in the hope of finding good solutions to a given problem. In machine learning, genetic algorithms were used in the 1980s and 1990s.[71][72] Conversely, machine learning techniques have been used to improve the performance of genetic and evolutionary algorithms.[73] Training models Usually, machine learning models require a lot of data in order for them to perform well. Usually, when training a machine learning model, one needs to collect a large, representative sample of data from a training set. Data from the training set can be as varied as a corpus of text, a collection of images, and data collected from individual users of a service. Overfitting is something to watch out for when training a machine learning model. Federated learning Main article: Federated learning Federated learning is an adapted form of distributed artificial intelligence to training machine learning models that decentralizes the training process, allowing for users' privacy to be maintained by not needing to send their data to a centralized server. This also increases efficiency by decentralizing the training process to many devices. For example, Gboard uses federated machine learning to train search query prediction models on users' mobile phones without having to send individual searches back to Google.[74] Applications There are many applications for machine learning, including: Agriculture Anatomy Adaptive websites Affective computing Banking Bioinformatics Brain–machine interfaces Cheminformatics Citizen science Computer networks Computer vision Credit-card fraud detection Data quality DNA sequence classification Economics Financial market analysis[75] General game playing Handwriting recognition Information retrieval Insurance Internet fraud detection Linguistics Machine learning control Machine perception Machine translation Marketing Medical diagnosis Natural language processing Natural language understanding Online advertising Optimization Recommender systems Robot locomotion Search engines Sentiment analysis Sequence mining Software engineering Speech recognition Structural health monitoring Syntactic pattern recognition Telecommunication Theorem proving Time series forecasting User behavior analytics In 2006, the media-services provider Netflix held the first "Netflix Prize" competition to find a program to better predict user preferences and improve the accuracy of its existing Cinematch movie recommendation algorithm by at least 10%. A joint team made up of researchers from AT&T Labs-Research in collaboration with the teams Big Chaos and Pragmatic Theory built an ensemble model to win the Grand Prize in 2009 for $1 million.[76] Shortly after the prize was awarded, Netflix realized that viewers' ratings were not the best indicators of their viewing patterns ("everything is a recommendation") and they changed their recommendation engine accordingly.[77] In 2010 The Wall Street Journal wrote about the firm Rebellion Research and their use of machine learning to predict the financial crisis.[78] In 2012, co-founder of Sun Microsystems, Vinod Khosla, predicted that 80% of medical doctors' jobs would be lost in the next two decades to automated machine learning medical diagnostic software.[79] In 2014, it was reported that a machine learning algorithm had been applied in the field of art history to study fine art paintings and that it may have revealed previously unrecognized influences among artists.[80] In 2019 Springer Nature published the first research book created using machine learning.[81] Limitations Although machine learning has been transformative in some fields, machine-learning programs often fail to deliver expected results.[82][83][84] Reasons for this are numerous: lack of (suitable) data, lack of access to the data, data bias, privacy problems, badly chosen tasks and algorithms, wrong tools and people, lack of resources, and evaluation problems.[85] In 2018, a self-driving car from Uber failed to detect a pedestrian, who was killed after a collision.[86] Attempts to use machine learning in healthcare with the IBM Watson system failed to deliver even after years of time and billions of dollars invested.[87][88] Bias Main article: Algorithmic bias Machine learning approaches in particular can suffer from different data biases. A machine learning system trained on current customers only may not be able to predict the needs of new customer groups that are not represented in the training data. When trained on man-made data, machine learning is likely to pick up the same constitutional and unconscious biases already present in society.[89] Language models learned from data have been shown to contain human-like biases.[90][91] Machine learning systems used for criminal risk assessment have been found to be biased against black people.[92][93] In 2015, Google photos would often tag black people as gorillas,[94] and in 2018 this still was not well resolved, but Google reportedly was still using the workaround to remove all gorillas from the training data, and thus was not able to recognize real gorillas at all.[95] Similar issues with recognizing non-white people have been found in many other systems.[96] In 2016, Microsoft tested a chatbot that learned from Twitter, and it quickly picked up racist and sexist language.[97] Because of such challenges, the effective use of machine learning may take longer to be adopted in other domains.[98] Concern for fairness in machine learning, that is, reducing bias in machine learning and propelling its use for human good is increasingly expressed by artificial intelligence scientists, including Fei-Fei Li, who reminds engineers that "There’s nothing artificial about AI...It’s inspired by people, it’s created by people, and—most importantly—it impacts people. It is a powerful tool we are only just beginning to understand, and that is a profound responsibility.”[99] Model assessments Classification of machine learning models can be validated by accuracy estimation techniques like the holdout method, which splits the data in a training and test set (conventionally 2/3 training set and 1/3 test set designation) and evaluates the performance of the training model on the test set. In comparison, the K-fold-cross-validation method randomly partitions the data into K subsets and then K experiments are performed each respectively considering 1 subset for evaluation and the remaining K-1 subsets for training the model. In addition to the holdout and cross-validation methods, bootstrap, which samples n instances with replacement from the dataset, can be used to assess model accuracy.[100] In addition to overall accuracy, investigators frequently report sensitivity and specificity meaning True Positive Rate (TPR) and True Negative Rate (TNR) respectively. Similarly, investigators sometimes report the false positive rate (FPR) as well as the false negative rate (FNR). However, these rates are ratios that fail to reveal their numerators and denominators. The total operating characteristic (TOC) is an effective method to express a model's diagnostic ability. TOC shows the numerators and denominators of the previously mentioned rates, thus TOC provides more information than the commonly used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and ROC's associated area under the curve (AUC).[101] Ethics Machine learning poses a host of ethical questions. Systems which are trained on datasets collected with biases may exhibit these biases upon use (algorithmic bias), thus digitizing cultural prejudices.[102] For example, using job hiring data from a firm with racist hiring policies may lead to a machine learning system duplicating the bias by scoring job applicants against similarity to previous successful applicants.[103][104] Responsible collection of data and documentation of algorithmic rules used by a system thus is a critical part of machine learning. Because human languages contain biases, machines trained on language corpora will necessarily also learn these biases.[105][106] Other forms of ethical challenges, not related to personal biases, are more seen in health care. There are concerns among health care professionals that these systems might not be designed in the public's interest but as income-generating machines. This is especially true in the United States where there is a long-standing ethical dilemma of improving health care, but also increasing profits. For example, the algorithms could be designed to provide patients with unnecessary tests or medication in which the algorithm's proprietary owners hold stakes. There is huge potential for machine learning in health care to provide professionals a great tool to diagnose, medicate, and even plan recovery paths for patients, but this will not happen until the personal biases mentioned previously, and these "greed" biases are addressed.[107] Hardware Since the 2010s, advances in both machine learning algorithms and computer hardware have led to more efficient methods for training deep neural networks (a particular narrow subdomain of machine learning) that contain many layers of non-linear hidden units.[108] By 2019, graphic processing units (GPUs), often with AI-specific enhancements, had displaced CPUs as the dominant method of training large-scale commercial cloud AI.[109] OpenAI estimated the hardware compute used in the largest deep learning projects from AlexNet (2012) to AlphaZero (2017), and found a 300,000-fold increase in the amount of compute required, with a doubling-time trendline of 3.4 months.[110][111] Software Software suites containing a variety of machine learning algorithms include the following: Free and open-source so

The coding has been done on Python 3.65 using Jupyter Notebook. This program fetches LIVE data from TWITTER using Tweepy. Then we clean our data or tweets ( like removing special characters ). After that we perform sentiment analysis on the twitter data and plot it for better visualization. The we fetch the STOCK PRICE from yahoo.finance and add it to the data-set to perform prediction. We apply many machine learning algorithms like (random forest, MLPClassifier, logistic regression) and train our data-set. Then we perform prediction on untrained data and plot it with the real data and see the accuracy.

In Agriculture Price Monitioring , I have used data provided by open government site data.gov.in, which updates prices of market daily . Working Interface Details: We have provided user choice to see current market prices based on two choices: market wise or commodity wise use increase assesibility options. Market wise: User have to provide State,District and Market name and then select market wise button. Then user will be shown the prices of all the commodities present in the market in graphical format, so that he can analyse the rates on one scale. This feature is mostly helpful for a regular buyer to decide the choice of commodity to buy. He is also given feature to download the data in a tabular format(csv) for accurate analysis. Commodity Wise: User have to provide State,District and Commodity name and then select Commodity wise button. Then user will be shown the prices of all the markets present in the region with the commodity in graphical format, so that he can analyse the cheapest commodity rate. This feature is mostly helpful for wholesale buyers. He is also given feature to download the data in a tabular format(csv) for accurate analysis. On the first activity user is also given forecasting choice. It can be used to forecast the wholesale prices of various commodities at some later year. Regression techniques on timeseries data is used to predict future prices. Select the type of item and click link for future predictions. There are 3 java files Forecasts, DisplayGraphs, DisplayGraphs2 ..... Please change the localhost "server_name" at time of testing as the server name changes each time a new server is made. Things Used: We have used pandas , numpy , scikit learn , seaborn and matplotlib libraries for the same . The dataset is thoroughly analysed using different function available in pandas in my .iPynb file . Not just in-built functions are used but also many user made functions are made to make the working smooth . Various graphs like pointplot , heat-map , barplot , kdeplot , distplot, pairplot , stripplot , jointplot, regplot , etc are made and also deployed on the android app as well . To integrate the android app and machine learning analysis outputs , we have used Flask to host our laptop as the server . We have a separate file for the Flask as server.py . Where all the the necessary stuff of clint request and server response have been dealt with . We have used npm package ngrok for tunneling purpose and hosting . A different .iPynb file is used for the time series predictions using regression algorithms and would send the csv file of prediction along with the graph to the andoid app when given a request .

使用支持向量机、弹性网络、随机森林、LSTM、SARIMA等多种算法进行时间序列的回归预测，除此以外还采取了多种组合方法对以上算法输出的结果进行组合预测。Support vector machine, elastic network, random forest, LSTM, SARIMA and other algorithms are used for regression prediction of time series. In addition, a variety of combination methods are used to forecast the output of the above algorithms.

[Scikit-learn] Temperature Prediction Application using Machine Learning Algorithms; Predicted daily temperature using multiple Linear Regression models & MLP with Scikit-learn, score = 0.85

Stock Market Price Prediction: Used machine learning algorithms such as Linear Regression, Logistics Regression, Naive Bayes, K Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Random Forest to identify which algorithm gives better results. Used Neural Networks such as Auto ARIMA, Prophet(Time-Series), and LSTM(Long Term-Short Memory) then compare make Inferences about the model.

Context Rainfall is very crucial things for any types of agricultural task. Climate related data is important to analyse agricultural and crop seeding related field, where those data can be used to show the predict the rainfall in different season also for different types of crops. Developed application can be found from http://ml.bigalogy.com/ Paper: http://dspace.uiu.ac.bd/handle/52243/178 Abstract Mankind have been attempting to predict the weather from prehistory. For good reason for knowing when to plant crops, when to build and when to prepare for drought and flood. In a nation such as Bangladesh being able to predict the weather, especially rainfall has never been so vitally important. The proposed research work pursues to produce prediction model on rainfall using the machine learning algorithms. The base data for this work has been collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department. It is mainly focused on the development of models for long term rainfall prediction of Bangladesh divisions and districts (Weather Stations). Rainfall prediction is very important for the Bangladesh economy and day to day life. Scarcity or heavy - both rainfall effects rural and urban life to a great extent with the changing pattern of the climate. Unusual rainfall and long lasting rainy season is a great factor to take account into. We want to see whether too much unusual behavior is taking place another pattern resulting new clamatorial description. As agriculture is dependent on rain and heavy rainfall caused flood frequently leading to great loss to crops, rainfall is a very complex phenomenon which is dependent on various atmospheric, oceanic and geographical parameters. The relationship between these parameters and rainfall is unstable. Beside this changing behavior of clamatorial facts making the existing meteorological forecasting less usable to the users. Initially linear regression models were developed for monthly rainfall prediction of station and national level as per day month year. Here humidity, temperatures & wind parameters are used as predictors. The study is further extended by developing another popular regression analysis algorithm named Random Forest Regression. After then, few other classification algorithms have been used for model building, training and prediction. Those are Naive Bayes Classification, Decision Tree Classification (Entropy and Gini) and Random Forest Classification. In all model building and training predictor parameters were Station, Year, Month and Day. As the effect of rainfall affecting parameters is embedded in rainfall, rainfall was the label or dependent variable in these models. The developed and trained model is capable of predicting rainfall in advance for a month of a given year for a given area (for area we used here are the stations (weather parameters values are measured by Bangladesh Meteorological Department). The accuracy of rainfall estimation is above 65%. Accuracy percentage varies from algorithm to algorithm. Two regression analysis and three classification analysis models has been developed for rainfall prediction of 33 Bangladeshi weather station. Apache Spark library has been used for machine library in Scala programming language. The main idea behind the use of classification and regression analysis is to see the comparative difference between types of algorithms prediction output and the predictability along with usability. This thesis is a contribution to the effort of rainfall prediction within Bangladesh. It takes the strategy of applying machine learning models to historical weather data gathered in Bangladesh. As part of this work, a web-based software application was written using Apache Spark, Scala and HighCharts to demonstrate rainfall prediction using multiple machine learning models. Models are successively improved with the rainfall prediction accuracy. Content The given data has weather station and year wise monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh. Data is two format - 46 year (33 Weather Station) : From 1970 to 2016 Daily Rainfall Data Monthly Rainfall Data Columns: Station (Weather Station, along with Station Index) Year Month Day [For daily data file]

This project focuses on predicting whether an existing customer will purchase a product based on collected data. By leveraging the Logistic Regression algorithm, we aim to build a model that analyzes customer data and provides a binary prediction: whether they will buy the product or not.

Kaadugal is a parallelized multi-core C++ implementation of the random forests algorithm for classification, regression, and structured prediction problems.

Stock Market Prediction Web App based on Machine Learning and Sentiment Analysis of Tweets **(API keys included in code)**. The front end of the Web App is based on Flask and Wordpress. The App forecasts stock prices of the next seven days for any given stock under NASDAQ or NSE as input by the user. Predictions are given for three algorithms: ARIMA, LSTM, Linear Regression. The Web App combines the predicted prices for the next seven days with the sentiment analysis of tweets to give recommendation whether the price is going to rise or fall

Prepare to Technical Skills Here are the essential skills that a Machine Learning Engineer needs, as mentioned Read me files. Within each group are topics that you should be familiar with. Study Tip: Copy and paste this list into a document and save to your computer for easy referral. Computer Science Fundamentals and Programming Topics Data structures: Lists, stacks, queues, strings, hash maps, vectors, matrices, classes & objects, trees, graphs, etc. Algorithms: Recursion, searching, sorting, optimization, dynamic programming, etc. Computability and complexity: P vs. NP, NP-complete problems, big-O notation, approximate algorithms, etc. Computer architecture: Memory, cache, bandwidth, threads & processes, deadlocks, etc. Probability and Statistics Topics Basic probability: Conditional probability, Bayes rule, likelihood, independence, etc. Probabilistic models: Bayes Nets, Markov Decision Processes, Hidden Markov Models, etc. Statistical measures: Mean, median, mode, variance, population parameters vs. sample statistics etc. Proximity and error metrics: Cosine similarity, mean-squared error, Manhattan and Euclidean distance, log-loss, etc. Distributions and random sampling: Uniform, normal, binomial, Poisson, etc. Analysis methods: ANOVA, hypothesis testing, factor analysis, etc. Data Modeling and Evaluation Topics Data preprocessing: Munging/wrangling, transforming, aggregating, etc. Pattern recognition: Correlations, clusters, trends, outliers & anomalies, etc. Dimensionality reduction: Eigenvectors, Principal Component Analysis, etc. Prediction: Classification, regression, sequence prediction, etc.; suitable error/accuracy metrics. Evaluation: Training-testing split, sequential vs. randomized cross-validation, etc. Applying Machine Learning Algorithms and Libraries Topics Models: Parametric vs. nonparametric, decision tree, nearest neighbor, neural net, support vector machine, ensemble of multiple models, etc. Learning procedure: Linear regression, gradient descent, genetic algorithms, bagging, boosting, and other model-specific methods; regularization, hyperparameter tuning, etc. Tradeoffs and gotchas: Relative advantages and disadvantages, bias and variance, overfitting and underfitting, vanishing/exploding gradients, missing data, data leakage, etc. Software Engineering and System Design Topics Software interface: Library calls, REST APIs, data collection endpoints, database queries, etc. User interface: Capturing user inputs & application events, displaying results & visualization, etc. Scalability: Map-reduce, distributed processing, etc. Deployment: Cloud hosting, containers & instances, microservices, etc. Move on to the final lesson of this course to find lots of sample practice questions for each topic!

For this project, I used publicly available Electronic Health Records (EHRs) datasets. The MIT Media Lab for Computational Physiology has developed MIMIC-IIIv1.4 dataset based on 46,520 patients who stayed in critical care units of the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center of Boston between 2001 and 2012. MIMIC-IIIv1.4 dataset is freely available to researchers across the world. A formal request should be made directly to www.mimic.physionet.org, to gain access to the data. There is a required course on human research ‘Data or Specimens Only Research’ prior to data access request. I have secured one here -www.citiprogram.org/verify/?kb6607b78-5821-4de5-8cad-daf929f7fbbf-33486907. We built flexible and better performing model using the same 17 variables used in the SAPS II severity prediction model. The question ‘Can we improve the prediction performance of widely used severity scores using a more flexible model?’ is the central question of our project. I used the exact 17 variables used to develop the SAPS II severity prediction algorithm. These are 13 physiological variables, three underlying (chronic) disease variables and one admission variable. The physiological variables includes demographic (age), vital (Glasgow Comma Scale, systolic blood pressure, Oxygenation, Renal, White blood cells count, serum bicarbonate level, blood sodium level, blood potassium level, and blood bilirubin level). The three underlying disease variables includes Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS), metastatic cancer, and hematologic malignancy. Finally, whether admission was scheduled surgical or unscheduled surgical was included in the model. The dataset has 26 relational tables including patient’s hospital admission, callout information when patient was ready for discharge, caregiver information, electronic charted events including vital signs and any additional information relevant to patient care, patient demographic data, list of services the patient was admitted or transferred under, ICU stay types, diagnoses types, laboratory measurments, microbiology tests and sensitivity, prescription data and billing information. Although I have full access to the MIMIC-IIIv1.4 datasets, I can not share any part of the data publicly. If you are interested to learn more about the data, there is a MIMIC III Demo dataset based on 100 patients https://mimic.physionet.org/gettingstarted/demo/. If you are interested to requesting access to the data - https://mimic.physionet.org/gettingstarted/access/. Linked repositories: Exploratory-Data-Analysis-Clinical-Deterioration, Data-Wrangling-MIMICIII-Database, Clinical-Deterioration-Prediction-Model--Inferential-Statistics, Clinical-Deterioration-Prediction-Model--Ensemble-Algorithms-, Clinical-Deterioration-Prediction-Model--Logistic-Regression, Clinical-Deterioration-Prediction-Model---KNN © 2020 GitHub, Inc.

A Crop Yield prediction model which is using Machine Learning Ensemble Regression Algorithms

By learning and using prediction for failures, it is one of the important steps to improve the reliability of the cloud computing system. Furthermore, gave the ability to avoid incidents of failure and costs overhead of the system. It created a wonderful opportunity with the breakthroughs of machine learning and cloud storage that utilize generated huge data that provide pathways to predict when the system or hardware malfunction or fails. It can be used to improve the reliability of the system with the help of insights of using statistical analysis on the workload data from the cloud providers. This research will discuss regarding job usage data of tasks on the large “Google Cluster Workload Traces 2019” dataset, using multiple resampling techniques such as “Random Under Sampling, Random Oversampling and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique” to handle the imbalanced dataset. Furthermore, using multiple machine learning algorithm which is for traditional machine learning algorithm are “Logistic Regression, Decision Tree Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, Gradient Boosting Classifier and Extreme Gradient Boosting Classifier” while deep learning algorithm using “Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)” for job failure prediction between imbalanced and balanced dataset. Then, to have a comparison of imbalanced and balanced in terms of model accuracy, error rate, sensitivity, f – measure, and precision. The results are Extreme Gradient Boosting Classifier and Gradient Boosting Classifier is the most performing algorithm with and without imbalanced handling techniques. It showcases that SMOTE is the best method to choose from for handling imbalanced data. The deep learning model of LSTM and Gated Recurrent Unit may be not the best for the in terms of accuracy, based on the ROC Curve its better than the XGBoost Classifier and Gradient Boosting Classifier.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning have empowered our lives to a large extent. The number of advancements made in this space has revolutionized our society and continue making society a better place to live in. In terms of perception, both Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning are often used in the same context which leads to confusion. AI is the concept in which machine makes smart decisions whereas Machine Learning is a sub-field of AI which makes decisions while learning patterns from the input data. In this blog, we would dissect each term and understand how Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning are related to each other. What is Artificial Intelligence? The term Artificial Intelligence was recognized first in the year 1956 by John Mccarthy in an AI conference. In layman terms, Artificial Intelligence is about creating intelligent machines which could perform human-like actions. AI is not a modern-day phenomenon. In fact, it has been around since the advent of computers. The only thing that has changed is how we perceive AI and define its applications in the present world. The exponential growth of AI in the last decade or so has affected every sphere of our lives. Starting from a simple google search which gives the best results of a query to the creation of Siri or Alexa, one of the significant breakthroughs of the 21st century is Artificial Intelligence. The Four types of Artificial Intelligence are:- Reactive AI – This type of AI lacks historical data to perform actions, and completely reacts to a certain action taken at the moment. It works on the principle of Deep Reinforcement learning where a prize is awarded for any successful action and penalized vice versa. Google’s AlphaGo defeated experts in Go using this approach. Limited Memory – In the case of the limited memory, the past data is kept on adding to the memory. For example, in the case of selecting the best restaurant, the past locations would be taken into account and would be suggested accordingly. Theory of Mind – Such type of AI is yet to be built as it involves dealing with human emotions, and psychology. Face and gesture detection comes close but nothing advanced enough to understand human emotions. Self-Aware – This is the future advancement of AI which could configure self-representations. The machines could be conscious, and super-intelligent. Two of the most common usage of AI is in the field of Computer Vision, and Natural Language Processing. Computer Vision is the study of identifying objects such as Face Recognition, Real-time object detection, and so on. Detection of such movements could go a long way in analyzing the sentiments conveyed by a human being. Natural Language Processing, on the other hand, deals with textual data to extract insights or sentiments from it. From ChatBot Development to Speech Recognition like Amazon’s Alexa or Apple’s Siri all uses Natural Language to extract relevant meaning from the data. It is one of the widely popular fields of AI which has found its usefulness in every organization. One other application of AI which has gained popularity in recent times is the self-driving cars. It uses reinforcement learning technique to learn its best moves and identify the restrictions or blockage in front of the road. Many automobile companies are gradually adopting the concept of self-driving cars. What is Machine Learning? Machine Learning is a state-of-the-art subset of Artificial Intelligence which let machines learn from past data, and make accurate predictions. Machine Learning has been around for decades, and the first ML application that got popular was the Email Spam Filter Classification. The system is trained with a set of emails labeled as ‘spam’ and ‘not spam’ known as the training instance. Then a new set of unknown emails is fed to the trained system which then categorizes it as ‘spam’ or ‘not spam.’ All these predictions are made by a certain group of Regression, and Classification algorithms like – Linear Regression, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, and so on. The usability of these algorithms varies based on the problem statement and the data set in operation. Along with these basic algorithms, a sub-field of Machine Learning which has gained immense popularity in recent times is Deep Learning. However, Deep Learning requires enormous computational power and works best with a massive amount of data. It uses neural networks whose architecture is similar to the human brain. Machine Learning could be subdivided into three categories – Supervised Learning – In supervised learning problems, both the input feature and the corresponding target variable is present in the dataset. Unsupervised Learning – The dataset is not labeled in an unsupervised learning problem i.e., only the input features are present, but not the target variable. The algorithms need to find out the separate clusters in the dataset based on certain patterns. Reinforcement Learning – In this type of problems, the learner is rewarded with a prize for every correct move, and penalized for every incorrect move. The application of Machine Learning is diversified in various domains like Banking, Healthcare, Retail, etc. One of the use cases in the banking industry is predicting the probability of credit loan default by a borrower given its past transactions, credit history, debt ratio, annual income, and so on. In Healthcare, Machine Learning is often been used to predict patient’s stay in the hospital, the likelihood of occurrence of a disease, identifying abnormal patterns in the cell, etc. Many software companies have incorporated Machine Learning in their workflow to steadfast the process of testing. Various manual, repetitive tasks are being replaced by machine learning models. Comparison Between AI and Machine Learning Machine Learning is the subset of Artificial Intelligence which has taken the advancement in AI to a whole new level. The thought behind letting the computer learn from themselves and voluminous data that are getting generated from various sources in the present world has led to the emergence of Machine Learning. In Machine Learning, the concept of neural networks plays a significant role in allowing the system to learn from themselves as well as maintaining its speed, and accuracy. The group of neural nets lets a model rectifying its prior decision and make a more accurate prediction next time. Artificial Intelligence is about acquiring knowledge and applying them to ensure success instead of accuracy. It makes the computer intelligent to make smart decisions on its own akin to the decisions made by a human being. The more complex the problem is, the better it is for AI to solve the complexity. On the other hand, Machine Learning is mostly about acquiring knowledge and maintaining better accuracy instead of success. The primary aim is to learn from the data to automate specific tasks. The possibilities around Machine Learning and Neural Networks are endless. A set of sentiments could be understood from raw text. A machine learning application could also listen to music, and even play a piece of appropriate music based on a person’s mood. NLP, a field of AI which has made some ground-breaking innovations in recent years uses Machine Learning to understand the nuances in natural language and learn to respond accordingly. Different sectors like banking, healthcare, manufacturing, etc., are reaping the benefits of Artificial Intelligence, particularly Machine Learning. Several tedious tasks are getting automated through ML which saves both time and money. Machine Learning has been sold these days consistently by marketers even before it has reached its full potential. AI could be seen as something of the old by the marketers who believe Machine Learning is the Holy Grail in the field of analytics. The future is not far when we would see human-like AI. The rapid advancement in technology has taken us closer than ever before to inevitability. The recent progress in the working AI is much down to how Machine Learning operates. Both Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning has its own business applications and its usage is completely dependent on the requirements of an organization. AI is an age-old concept with Machine Learning picking up the pace in recent times. Companies like TCS, Infosys are yet to unleash the full potential of Machine Learning and trying to incorporate ML in their applications to keep pace with the rapidly growing Analytics space. Conclusion The hype around Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning are such that various companies and even individuals want to master the skills without even knowing the difference between the two. Often both the terms are misused in the same context. To master Machine Learning, one needs to have a natural intuition about the data, ask the right questions, and find out the correct algorithms to use to build a model. It often doesn’t requiem how computational capacity. On the other hand, AI is about building intelligent systems which require advanced tools and techniques and often used in big companies like Google, Facebook, etc. There is a whole host of resources to master Machine Learning and AI. The Data Science blogs of Dimensionless is a good place to start with. Also, There are Online Data Science Courses which cover the various nitty gritty of Machine Learning.

Project shows that real-time Twitter data can be used to predict market movement of Bitcoin Price. The goal of this project is to prove whether Twitter data relating to cryptocurrencies can be utilized to develop advantageous crypto coin trading strategies. By way of supervised machine learning techniques, have outlined several machine learning pipelines with the objective of identifying cryptocurrency market movement. The prominent alternative currency ex- amined in this paper is Bitcoin (BTC). Our approach to cleaning data and applying supervised learning algorithms such as logistic regression, Decision Tree Classifier, and LDA leads to a final prediction accuracy exceeding 70%. In order to achieve this result, rigorous error analysis is employed in order to ensure that accurate inputs are utilized at each step of the model.

Welcome to 6.86x Machine Learning with Python–From Linear Models to Deep Learning. Machine learning methods are commonly used across engineering and sciences, from computer systems to physics. Moreover, commercial sites such as search engines, recommender systems (e.g., Netflix, Amazon), advertisers, and financial institutions employ machine learning algorithms for content recommendation, predicting customer behavior, compliance, or risk. As a discipline, machine learning tries to design and understand computer programs that learn from experience for the purpose of prediction or control. In this course, you will learn about principles and algorithms for turning training data into effective automated predictions. We will cover: Representation, over-fitting, regularization, generalization, VC dimension; Clustering, classification, recommender problems, probabilistic modeling, reinforcement learning; On-line algorithms, support vector machines, and neural networks/deep learning. You will be able to: Understand principles behind machine learning problems such as classification, regression, clustering, and reinforcement learning Implement and analyze models such as linear models, kernel machines, neural networks, and graphical models Choose suitable models for different applications Implement and organize machine learning projects, from training, validation, parameter tuning, to feature engineering You will implement and experiment with the algorithms in several Python projects designed for different practical applications. You will expand your statistical knowledge to not only include a list of methods, but also the mathematical principles that link these methods together, equipping you with the tools you need to develop new ones.

Grey Wolf Algorithm Optimization Support Vector Machine Regression Prediction Based on KPCA Kernel Principal Component Analysis (Model Code for Mathematical Modeling Competition)

Movie rating prediction uses ML algorithms to predict user ratings based on past data, movie attributes, and user preferences. Models like Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Neural Networks are commonly used.

The basis of this project involves analyzing Amgen future profitability based on its current business environment and financial performance. Technical Analysis, on the other hand, includes reading the charts and using statistical figures to identify the trends in the stock market. The dataset used for this analysis was downloaded from Yahoo finance for year 2009 to 2019. There are multiple variables in the dataset – date, open, high, low, volume. Adjusted close. The columns Open and Close represent the starting and final price at which the stock is traded on a day. High and Low represent the maximum, minimum price of the share for the day. The profit or loss calculation is usually determined by the closing price of a stock for the day, I used the adjusted closing price as the target variable. I downloaded data on the inflation rate, unemployment rate, Industrial Production Index, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items and Real Gross Domestic Product as independent variables, Quarterly Financial Report: U.S. Corporations: Cash Dividends Charged to Retained Earnings All Manufacturing: All Nondurable Manufacturing: Chemicals: Pharmaceuticals and Medicines Industry, Producer Price Index by Industry: Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing, 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, and Producer Price Index by Industry: Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing Index. The independent variables are economic parameters which was obtained from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) website. Methodology 1. Linear Regression: The linear regression model returns an equation that determines the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable. I used linear regression tool in Alteryx with ARIMA tool to forecast the stock prices for the year. The algorithm was trained with the historical data to see how the variables impact on the dependent variable. The test data was used to predict the adjusted closing price for the year and predicted a stock price of $193.38. 2. Support Vector Machines (SVM): Support Vector Networks (SVN), are a popular set of supervised learning algorithms originally developed for classification (categorical target) problems and can be used for regression (numerical target) problems. SVMs are memory efficient and can address many predictor variables. This model finds the best equation of one predictor, a plane (two predictors) or a hyperplane (three or more predictors) that maximally separates the groups of records, based on a measure of distance into different groups based on the target variable. A kernel function provides the measure of distance that causes to records to be placed in the same or different groups and involves taking a function of the predictor variables to define the distance metric. I used the SVM tool in Alteryx with ARIMA tool to forecast the stock prices for the year and predicted a stock price of $189.44. 3. Spline Model: The Spline Model tool was used because it provides the multivariate adaptive regression splines (or MARS) algorithm of Friedman. This statistical learning model self-determines which subset of fields best predict a target field of interest and can capture highly nonlinear relationships and interactions between fields. I used the Spline tool in Alteryx with ARIMA tool to forecast the stock prices for the year and predicted a stock price of $201.84. The results from the models was weighted by comparing the RMSE of each model. A lower RMSE indicates that the model’s predictions were closer to the actual values. However, a simpler model with the same RMSE as a more complex model is generally better, as simpler models are less likely to be overfit. Though the Spline model had a lower RMSE, the Linear Regression model had fewer variables. Thus, we combined the 3 models with the ARIMA forecast in a model ensemble, which allows us to use the results of multiple models. The forecasted stock price is $197.99 with 1.5% increase for 31st December 2019. Apart from economic parameters, stock price is affected by the news about the company and other factors like demonetization or merger/demerger of the companies. There are certain intangible factors which can often be impossible to predict beforehand hence the model predicts that the stock price of Amgen will continue to rise except there is a drastic downturn of the company.

About This project is a Cryptocurrency Price Prediction application built using Svelte and Machine Learning algorithms (such as Linear Regression, Random Forest, or a simple neural network).

Developed a price prediction model using Random Forest Regression algorithm. Different graphs were created as a part of Exploratory Data Analysis. Feature Engineering was performed to make the data ready for building the model.Built an interactive dashboard using dash and plotly libraries

While Deep Learning is a subset of Machine Learning, the prediction methodology in deep learning is different and works similar to how a human brain uses neural pathways to process information & learn from it. In this workshop we will learn about the building blocks of deep learning, neural networks, and how they work. We'll start with Logistic Regression - a simple and basic neural network classification algorithm, having just a one-layer neural network. These are the resources for the first session of Your Path to Deep Learning.